International community sees Ramaphosa as ‘least bad option’ to accelerate reform and honour green energy commitment

South Africa’s 55th national conference is being closely watched from beyond our shores. Chris Vandome, a senior political analyst at Chatham House in London says President Cyril Ramaphosa is generally regarded as ‘the least bad option,’ although overseas leaders are, like many South Africans, frustrated by his slow pace of economic reform. Vandome told BizNews the international community would like to see the pace accelerate. And donors to the Just Energy Transition, who have committed $8.5 billion to the project and have chosen South Africa as a test case, are keen to see a commitment to a green energy transition. Describing Gwede Mantashe as the ‘last stand of the coal industry’, Vandome said it remained to be seen whether Mantashe still had enough support in the ANC to be politically important to President Ramaphosa. – Linda van Tilburg


Extracts from the interview below

Frustration with Ramaphosa’s slow pace of reform

The international community is watching this as closely as South Africans. This is a big moment in South Africa’s history. There’s an expectation – or has been for a long time now – of a conversation around what’s going to happen at the next national election in 2024. I think that the international community has its own frustrations with President Ramaphosa in the same way that many South Africans have. There’s a recognition of some of the judicial reforms and the anti-corruption agenda, but there is also frustration with the slow pace of some of the economic reform and where the country is economically at the moment. There’s a sense that perhaps this was a guy who had space to do more, could have done more, but hasn’t fully utilised the political capital that he had. As we’ve come through this year and we’ve been following the Phala Phala scandal there’s been this sense of: is this curtains for what we thought might have been the least worst option or even the most optimistic? This was the guy that could have been hopeful even if it is not around the party but is he being subsumed by all the politics within the party? So, it’s been a fraught year for people following it and I think that where we stand now is that we are back to a base case assumption of he’s going to win the party presidency this weekend, broadly unchallenged, and his position within the party is safe. The vote that happened here in Cape Town in Parliament was really important for closing down this two-week long speculative period.

Donors of $8.5 billion Just Energy Transition partnership want to see green energy transition

I think the key question for them is about the continuation of Ramaphosa, not just for the sake of supporting Ramaphosa, but for support for that policy agenda, the anti-corruption against the economic reform agenda and for some of the international community, the policy on energy. You’ve got to remember that South Africa is a beneficiary of the Just Energy Transition partnership of 8.5 billion USD coming from the United States, going from the UK, France, Germany and the European Union. That’s going to be something that they want to see a continuation of and it’s also a test case for that type of a deal. Now, Nigeria, Senegal, Egypt, and others are looking for something similar. South Africa is the test case and they want to see that work. So there is a desire to see a continuation of the commitments on these kind of issues. Beyond that, South Africa is an important regional partner for international countries. It has an important role to play in articulating and vocalising some of the interests of Africa on the world stage. I mean, that’s a contentious position… often they’re not comfortable with that but sometimes it is beneficial. So, for all sorts of reasons South Africa is important and is followed. 

The political importance of Gwede Mantashe, ‘the last stand of the coal industry,’ has declined 

He’s seen as an obstacle to some of the policy issues, on green finance, on climate issues, on modernisation of the mining industry, on questions around privatisation of state owned enterprises and so on, on a range of policy issues being seen as a stumbling block or one of multiple centres of power that are challenging each other on each of these issues. You’ve got distinctions between his Ministry of Mineral Resources and Energy, the ministries of finance and of State Owned Enterprises and all these different ministries have different views on these things. So, he’s been seen as one of those taking a certain line on these things and particularly on the green energy transition. He really has been dragging his feet and is kind of the last stand of the coal industry. But, he was also really crucial politically for Ramaphosa in getting the top job at the last conference and has been really important in buttressing support for the president through his first term. But the question is: is that support still there? There was a piece in the South African press recently discussing the demise of Gwede or the decline in his own political importance and it’s interesting to see that even in his own challenge for a top six position, he’s not the favourite candidate. So, where he’s challenging for national chairperson, he’s actually had the second highest number of branch nominations. Stanley Mathabatha looks like he’s going to take that position and is suddenly being very vocal in the press about expecting to do so. There’s the other question about where he is going to end up within the national executive going forward.

A Cabinet reshuffle in the New Year with Ramaphosa detractors being kicked out

What we can expect to see in the new year is a cabinet reshuffle and we should see some old players leaving. Some of the people who will be kicked out will be the Ramaphosa detractors. He’ll be able to say, Look, I won back then and it was close and you guys have been at me ever since, but I’ve just won again. So, your case is gone. And, you know, I hope he’ll be in a good, strong political position to  move some of these people out of those positions. But then there’ll be others like Gwede; they  have been incredibly important to him but it’s time to reshuffle them. It’s time to build up younger people in the party, move others into some of those positions and put a team together that’s going to challenge at the next national election. I think he’d want to do that sooner rather than later. 

Nominations expected from the floor – Can Dlamini-Zuma resurface? 

Those around Didi Mabuza, the current deputy president, have said that that will be a challenge from the floor and Nskosazana Dlamini-Zuma has said that she could avail herself, whatever that means. The way in which the process is structured is that, yes, we’ve had the branch nominations. We have these characters that seem to be the ones that are going forward and we’ve got those lists and we can see who has been put forward for all the different positions. But you can be challenged from the floor on the day. There could be people who are there and get the numbers, but you get a challenge from the floor. You need the support of 25% of delegates. So, yes, there’s going to be disruption, but are any of those disruptors going to get the 25%? That’s going to be the big question. I personally don’t think so, but you never know. I think that what we’re looking at in terms of those branch nominations, that’s going to be where the key battles are but you’re going to get disruptions – that’s part of the way in which the ANC has functioned recently.

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