Seán McLaughlin – Gauteng: Corruption? Factions? And the ANC’s endgame?

Key topics:.ANC lost its Gauteng majority, relying on far-left allies for control.Corruption scandals and factionalism threaten ANC's provincial grip.A DA-ANC deal could reshape Gauteng's leadership before 2029..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here..Support South Africa's bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here..If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here..By Seán McLaughlin*.An essay on how South Africa's economic heartland has become a battleground for political power and competing interests. What it means for the future..Background.For years, many have foreseen the downfall of South Africa's African National Congress (ANC). Indeed, many factors circle to present a challenging stretch ahead for the party: minimal economic growth, end of the fiscal runway, fading memory of the liberation struggle, the possible exposure of party donations from nefarious sources, the loss of support in major city councils and parastatals, the rise of political alternatives..Add to the potion the loss of patronage networks which sustain the party, and the loss of control in the three major provinces. The ANC has lost two of those three perhaps irrevocably (the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal)..It hangs by a thread as a minority government in the last one of Gauteng, perhaps to cover up past misconduct of 30 years of mis-governance. A large provincial economy could have led to expansive embezzlement networks and the proliferation of criminal syndicates..Whilst allegations have been widely reported and prompted calls for investigations, it is essential to note that, as of now, no conclusive evidence has been presented to substantiate the claims against Mr Panyaza Lesufi as Premier or the Gauteng ANC..Lesufi has denied the allegations, and formal investigations are either ongoing or yet to be initiated. The credibility of these accusations remains uncertain pending the outcomes of these investigations..In June 2024, the ANC dropped from 51% to 34% in the province. Mr Panyaza Lesufi was voted in by the pro-market Democratic Alliance (DA). So minor were the positions offered to the DA in return, (E-government and Agriculture and the Environment), that the DA could not accept the offer and returned to opposition. With the ANC at 34%, and the DA not far behind it at 27%, it was reported that positions pursued by the DA included Finance, Education and Health, the latter two being key provincial competences..One could read obfuscation here, above a deep affection for communist allies. I am not aware of any deep, thoughtful Marxist analysis by Mr Lesufi in years gone by, unlike some ANC others, to their credit..Instead, the ANC now relies on the unofficial backing from the far-left Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and the uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) parties. For an idea of what the 'doomsday' coalition may look like, observers can look to the state of the Gauteng province..Corruption?.Corruption can spell the beginning of the end of movements from the late Roman Empire to apartheid South Africa..Graft weakens trust in the system. Reform becomes harder as vested interests resist change..I am not a specialised activist on corruption matters, but it would be damning if accusations of malfeasance against the Gauteng ANC turn out to have credibility. .Civic action group Afriforum alleges in October 2024 that Mr Lesufi engaged in "Covering up corruption, money laundering and fraud". At that time, 13 officials from the Department for Social Development (GDSD) were under investigation..The office of Mr Lesufi responded to me saying that "Afriforum has been involved in a tag team smearing campaign with the DA … this is nothing but political theatre." .In December 2024, the Daily Maverick, a newspaper, reported that,."Investigative and forensic reports into the funds disbursed by the Gauteng Department of Social Development have flagged serious concerns over fraud, corruption and evidence that money meant to alleviate poverty never reached those in need…".And that investigations revealed, ."Widespread mismanagement of hundreds of millions of rands, Prima facie evidence of fraud and corruption by senior GDSD officials".Mr Lesufi and the historic Gauteng ANC provincial government might face more accusations. If backed by whistle-blowers, they could come from different organisations going deep into the corridors of yesterday's misdemeanours. .DA Federal Chairperson Helen Zille said that if Health and Education were on the table, the DA would have said yes to taking up government. She levels serious misconduct within the Health Department, and if another party were to take that over, it would unearth such graft. She claims that Mr Lesufi has admitted as much..Political circles mention the 'Alex Mafia', a group of former activists from the Alexandra township who have risen to positions of influence. .It is possible that this 'wing' or 'faction' of the ANC (if it can neatly be considered one) may have held it to ransom regarding the provincial government negotiations in 2024. .Such is the ANC fracturing that Jack Bloom – a DA member of the Gauteng Provincial Government (MPL) – said publicly that dockets of interest are posted under the doors of their offices. They would turn out to be ANC members leaking evidence of corruption by their fellow party members..Observers say there may be no way back for the ANC in Gauteng, if a lid comes off on extensive malfeasance..With this, and with provincial deadlock comes an opportunity for a landmark national deal between the ANC and DA broadly..Forethought would be to grant any individuals found to be corrupt a conditional amnesty – immunity in exchange for full disclosure. Such acts are necessary in the difficult time of post liberation politics. .Understanding should be forwarded to a party that represents freedom to so many..The DA could be less zealous in pursuing corrupt individuals now cooperating with authorities. In return, a lesser ANC back the DA and let it take the lead provincially. Tagging itself to a DA-province turnaround may provide resuscitation..Gauteng could be the DA's to run..Factions: Pro-GNU? Anti-GNU? – We are on your side but some of us may not be, in some cases, sometimes. .I am not a specialist on who-is-who in SA politics. That accolade may lie with Samkele Maseko. .In short, the provincial ANC did not wish to share power with the centrist DA, against the grain of the ANC's national leadership. But of course, it is not that simple. There may be some elements of the Gauteng ANC that are pro-DA/pro-Government of National Unity (GNU)..Analyst Frans Cronje, conceded on 17 October,.'I don't understand Gauteng. I don't know who's on who's side attempting to do what'.He states that public opinion in the country is moderate and that there is no appetite for revolutionary ideas such as those espoused by SA's far left (the Gauteng ANC, EFF or MK). They command a majority of registered voters who turned out on a day in May last year, but not a majority of eligible adults. Many stay away citing no good options..Mr Lesufi began a shady armed force with the idea of fighting crime – "AmaPanyaza". He has also talked of smart cities and bullet trains. Meanwhile, provincial governance is in a state of ruin..Ashley Mabasa writes for the Daily Maverick that,."The ANC's fate depends on the performance of ANC Gauteng … Theoretically, Weberian principles emphasise the importance of a robust, hierarchical bureaucracy led by technically skilled officials to meet the needs of the populace … Gauteng's ANC leadership has been unable to cultivate a civil service capable of delivering on its mandates. This failure underscores a lack of both vision and operational capacity, further alienating the electorate and deepening the crisis within the province.".In September 2024, the DA mayor of Tshwane was ousted. The City of Tshwane is one of nine municipal councils in the province of Gauteng and home to the administrative capital city of Pretoria. The DA had led a centre right coalition, until one of the members (Action South Africa – ASA) switched sides to govern with ANC and EFF, despite claiming it would never do so..This move had to have ANC backing. It was seen as an act of impudence and power play by Lesufi, with Presidential ambitions, to remove the DA mayor in the capital city, the DA being a key coalition partner of the ANC at a national level..President Ramaphosa was evidently unable to control the actions of the 'Gauteng guys'. RW Johnson asserts that this was not in fact given the nod by national ANC structures (NEC – National Executive Committee). Rather, Lesufi acted first then demanded ANC backing, to oppose this would have created a public split within the party..To complicate matters, I understand that there is some pro-DA support within certain Gauteng ANC circles, notably in the City of Ekurheleni (Municipality) due to the unworkability of the ANC-EFF coalition in that city. .If the DA were to take charge of the province's cities in 2026, a roadblock to progress would still be an obstructionist, Lesufi-lead provincial government..Cronje gauges (to the extent that is possible) that what may be going on is an attempt to normalise the EFF in the cities. That is, to act sensibly at the beginning, then ramp up the revolutionary antics later..Later, on 28 October, he stated on Mike Sham's State of the Nation, that if the ANC pursues populist policies which see a sharp decline in living standards, ."… the ANC could be annihilated… time and again in the ANC, it allows radical populist influence to totally undermine the otherwise significant successes its recorded in the aftermath of 1994, if it does so again, it really will be the most extraordinary thing to observe …".On the situation in Tshwane, he commented,."it suggests that when the pressure is on, the balance of power within the ANC is not strong enough to defend this GNU … the ANC is heading for suicidal consequences if it carries on doing what it is doing in Gauteng…".The possible rise of Mr Lesufi's to ANC top spot and President by 2027 is a serious threat to the GNU. That may re-run 2024 – collapse the GNU, team up with the far-leftists and wreck things..It may lead to the ANC's implosion from more of the same policy errors which have caused its very downfall. .How this plays into national politics is effectively a showdown. For around a decade leading into 2024, it has been a case of 'wait-and-see-if-the-far-left-or-far-right-get-the-upper-hand-in-the-ANC'. Members may not have been defecting as it could still have split one way or the other. Since the GNU formation, it has been a case of waiting to see if it holds. .If the ANC did double down on 'Radical Economic Transformation' (RET), and ally with MK and the EFF nationally, a myriad of groundbreaking pressures against it would see an ANC/MK/EFF struggle to hold together..That could also be the catalyst for a new centre left party, with national elections only two years later in 2029. I have written at length on how these very Gauteng antics may be the architect for this new player. It may only need around 15% for the broader centre to gain a majority in Gauteng province and nationally..In France, President Macron came from nowhere one year before the French election in 2017..Or the ANC relative centrists could form a DA-allied party of around 25%. The DA could conceivably grow to higher than that by 2029, commanding a national lead. The screws are likely to soon start turning behind the scenes within the party and business to get behind a pro-GNU candidate for ANC top spot. .It may be easier for everybody if the ANC does finally split and end the unwieldy broach church..And so, Gauteng is an explosive fault line straight down the middle of the ANC, and of South African politics, reported to have led to ferocious internal spats. More than other provinces, what happens in Gauteng ripples upwards to the national level and downwards to the city councils..A drop at the ballot box in 2029 similar to that of 2024 would see the ANC at 17%. .I do not doubt the seriousness with which ANC national leaders take its very own Gauteng threat from within. .Healthy?.Analyst Marius Roodt has drawn parallels to Germany and India, in that the coalition partners at national level do not always trickle down to the provinces. That is valid point – the ANC governs with the Freedom Front+ in the Northern Cape province..But the DA voted in Mr Lesufi as Premier, expecting a workable offer at provincial coalition level in return, only to be offered mickey mouse spots..Another issue with this is that the Gauteng ANC does not reflect the national ANC. There are some reformist impulses in the national ANC, which could conceivably morph the party into a more coherent, centre left entity over the next four years..A voter may reasonably put his or her faith in that at a national level but that represents something very different in the capital province..So, why should it be the DA that the ANC turns to for the numbers? There is no god given right for the DA to govern in Gauteng. But again, the DA voted in the Premier..As outlined above, that provides a comfortable majority of 57% in the province (47/80 seats)..ANC: 34.76% / 28 seatsEFF: 12.93% / 11 seatsMK: 9.79% / 8 seats.As an ANC-EFF-MK is currently governing, citizens can vote on their performance in 2029. .Forward.In recent months, the national ANC reorganised the Gauteng ANC structures. It now has 68 members and did not dislodge Lesufi. Few see renewal from the new setup..So dysfunctional could become the provincial government that removing Lesufi before 2029 becomes part of an ANC-DA agreement..It may come to a vote of no confidence, sooner rather than later. The DA lead a vote of no confidence against previous Gauteng Premier David Makhura in 2018, which was defeated. Whilst many provincial motions of no confidence have been tabled in SA, ultimately none have successfully removed a provincial Premier..An open vote would expose who really is on Mr Lesufi's side. Given that he has succeeded in passing budgets with MK/EFF, such a vote may struggle to get the numbers..And only a vote of no confidence in the provincial executive could force fresh provincial elections. That would be unprecedented and most unlikely..Change may need to wait until 2029. But four years is a long time in the heartland of a country seeing rapid socio-political realignment..The national ANC may decide before then decide to cut Lesufi loose. Such conviction would be a departure from Mr Ramaphosa's style. .Yet the national ANC may decide that the need to do a confidence and supply deal with the DA to stabilise the ANC vote in Gauteng, overrides the fallout from booting him out..But it is not clear that there is sufficient pro-GNU support within the Gauteng ANC, and so it is not clear how much any stabilisation pact would be adhered to by ANC members. .Gauteng is truly out of sync with national politics..Without firm action from the ANC's national leadership against the Gauteng rebels, the highveld sun may be setting for the ANC..One pictures the party top brass sitting around a coffee table in 2038 Soweto. These buzzing streets are the new South Africa in a post-ANC era. They look at each other and wonder what went wrong..Read also:.Sean McLaughlin: Can a new political party break the Gauteng deadlock?Gauteng: Change coming for the cities in 2026 – Seán McLaughlinPaddi Clay: Living through Limbo in mad, bad Gauteng.*Seán McLaughlin is a Political Scientist and Data Analyst.He can be reached on X and LinkedIn. He is keen to hear considered feedback and engagement from readers directly.Previously, he has worked for data and news providers Wood Mackenzie and Acuris.He holds a degree in Arabic and International Relations from the University of St Andrews, as well as a degree in Data Science for Business, from the University of Stirling.

Seán McLaughlin – Gauteng: Corruption? Factions? And the ANC’s endgame?

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