When reflecting on how best to tackle 2021, two principles emerged: Life is complex and getting ever more so; and making the most of it requires disciplined exploration.
That sent me back to the concept of knowing your circle of competence – something Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger refer to often including at most Berkshire Hathaway AGMs in Omaha. It’s a deceptively simple but brilliantly effective discipline. And, indeed, also a path to successful investing.
Buffett discussed the concept in his 1996 letter to Berkshire shareholders where he wrote: “You don’t have to be an expert on every company, or even many. You only have to be able to evaluate companies within your circle of competence. The size of that circle is not very important; knowing its boundaries, however, is vital.”
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It’s the same in everyday lives. For instance, how our nation should react to the Covid-19 pandemic is way outside my circle of competence. Whatever opinions I might express would at best be ill-informed, at worst, foolish. So, this year my quest is retain an open mind on anything outside my circle of competence. Pretty obvious, really. Listening before judging has always been the best way to learn.
A sobering graph from the weekly pack distributed by Stanlib chief economist Kevin Lings, especially if you’re over 60. It clearly shows how the second wave of Covid-19 infections has pushed South Africa’s excess deaths for the most vulnerable to coronavirus beyond mortalities of the initial pandemic in mid-2020.
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