G-20 summit triumph as Trump’s absence boosts South Africa’s moment: Katzenellenbogen
Key topics:
Ramaphosa hailed for defying Trump at Africa’s first G20 Summit.
Summit focused on Africa, multilateralism, and global declarations.
Trump’s absence boosted SA’s profile but achieved little substantive change.
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In an early Monday morning talk show on a Johannesburg radio station, callers were heaping praise on President Cyril Ramaphosa for his performance in hosting the G20 Summit.
Going ahead with the G20 Leaders’ Declaration in defiance of Trump, rather than a statement from the Chair, drew something close to adulation from callers. Ramaphosa had said, “We will not be bullied,” and many callers saw him as true to his word. Some callers were also full of pride that this was the first global summit on the African continent, and it had all gone off without a hitch.
“Our government has outdone itself,” declared Clement Manyathela, who hosts Radio 702’s morning talk show.
One caller, who seemed alone in his views, said the G20 success was the result of the Trump stayaway. ‘And now as we return to normal, we will return to unemployment and our shacks’, he added.
The caller made a big point here. As much as Trump wanted to signal his dislike of the ANC, by staying away he played into the hands of Ramaphosa and much of the rest of the world. That is precisely what most of those attending wanted, even the Europeans, who are among the US’s staunchest allies.
Had Trump attended the G20 Summit in Johannesburg, there would not have been this confrontation, and the praise from the morning callers would have been a lot less effusive.
A big lesson over the dangers of boycotting meetings should have been learned from the 1950 stayaway by the Soviet Union from United Nations Security Council meetings in protest at the UN’s refusal to seat representatives from the People’s Republic of China. The result was that the US managed to get through a Security Council resolution authorizing a UN mission in South Korea, which had been invaded by the North. That gave the US the sort of international endorsement that is always good to have.
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Trump’s stayaway allowed the US to be portrayed as the villain in Johannesburg. The event was a political success, precisely and only because Trump stayed away and the meeting went on.
And that was key to SA making this a landmark event. The ANC’s disarray and our low growth, high unemployment, and lack of delivery across many areas over more than 15 years have meant the party has tried to find other successes. That is why the ANC has been keen to leave its mark as, “a revolutionary force on the international stage”. This is the view of Ivor Chipkin in a recent paper published by the South African Journal of International Affairs.
“Revolutionary force”
Our friends show that the ANC wants us to be a “revolutionary force.” Having a major success in foreign policy is key to ANC self-esteem. The G20 Summit has been an ANC and Ramaphosa glory moment on the international stage.
And Trump and fortune favoured Ramaphosa on that. One big takeaway from the weekend is that what is normally a very divided group of countries was able to suddenly find common cause on one big issue: Trump.
Russia and China are always pleased to see the US receive a bruising and to see Washington split from its allies. India has been hurt by Trump’s tariffs, and as a rising power, it is keen to demonstrate its independence. Europe is at serious odds with Trump over his Ukraine peace plan and trade issues, and is building greater defence independence. They therefore were not deterred by Trump’s insistence that there be no Leaders’ declaration.
The big takeaway from the Summit was certainly not the wordy 30-page declaration, which contained nothing new. SA was able to achieve a focus on Africa at the Summit, as the declaration mentions the continent 25 times and gives a nod to Ubuntu. As there are no firm commitments for specific levels of funding or timelines and it is not legally binding, the declaration is nothing but a general statement of intent.
The declaration was not a total victory for SA’s “progressive” foreign policy agenda. The international expert panel investigating inequality, appointed by Ramaphosa and headed by the left-leaning economics professor Joseph Stiglitz, had proposed a permanent panel to look into the issue. But there was no mention of any permanent jobs to address global inequality in the final declaration.
It was always going to be difficult to break new ground in a declaration. Much of what was in the document has been discussed for years in other fora, so it was pretty much a cut-and-paste job, albeit painstakingly negotiated.
Had Trump been in town, the declaration would have looked very different. As a start, the Trump administration said it disliked the theme of the summit – “Solidarity, Equality and Sustainability.” It would not have gone along with the aim of “deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gases.”
Continued engagement
And Trump would have not signed off on the idea of continued engagement between countries on global minimum taxes, even though the declaration did emphasise tax sovereignty for all countries. Among the other matters that are anathema to the Trump administration would be the idea of reform of the United Nations (UN) Security Council and the commitment to multilateralism.
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Multilateralism is one of those things that most countries like so long as it works in their favour. Trump favours the sort of multilateral events which he leads. The Gaza peace deal brought in Muslim countries from across the world in support, and can certainly be described as a multilateral endeavour. While many countries sign off on a commitment to multilateralism, they are big emitters of greenhouse gases. Words and deeds are not the same on issues like these.
Much of the declaration was in line with what happens in the UN and some other international fora: a wish for peace, condemnation of terrorism, strengthening disaster response mechanisms, debt sustainability for low-income countries, finance for a just energy transition, reducing inequality, and harnessing critical minerals for inclusive growth.
That just might be the problem with the G20 as a mechanism. The hosts try to do too much and end up achieving little. But then, these meetings are really about boosting the profile of the host country and providing a forum where global leaders can catch up.
Leap in logic
To suggest that the Trump stayaway shows up the US as a fading power is a leap in logic.
Even a conservative Republican successor to Trump will probably want to undo the damage Trump has done to the US. The US remains the largest economy with enormous soft and military power.
Besides, neither Trump’s boycott nor the G20 Summit will leave an indelible mark on the most pressing issues of our time. And as we head into the local government elections in about a year’s time, Ramaphosa’s Summit magic will fade, as municipal delivery issues come to the fore.
*Jonathan Katzenellenbogen is a Johannesburg-based freelance journalist. His articles have appeared on DefenceWeb, Politicsweb, as well as in a number of overseas publications. Katzenellenbogen has also worked on Business Day and as a TV and radio reporter and newsreader. He has a Master's degree in International Relations from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University and an MBA from the MIT Sloan School of Management.
This article was first published by Daily Friend and is republished with permission