January sales: Bargain hunt in markets, not just malls – Sean Peche

*This content is supplied by Sean Peche, Portfolio Manager at Ranmore Fund Management Ltd.First appeared on LinkedIn.Don't you love January? It's a fresh start for sensible decisions. January sales are perfect for snagging deals on goods, leaving you financially comfortable if you like your purchase or even if you decide to resell on Vinted. However, buying at full price can lead to losses, much like investing in Diageo at £40 in December 2021, now down 38% due to trends like "dry January" becoming "dry all year". Conversely, buying Natwest during its "January sales" in 2022, when banks were unpopular, has yielded a 94% return. Today, with large-cap US stocks like Apple and Walmart at over 30x forward earnings, Europe, emerging markets, and Asia may offer real "bargains". But remember, popularity can be costly in investing; the smart move is often to seek value, especially post-QE with rising interest rates..Don't you love January?.Time for a fresh chance to do the things you know make sense..And aren't January sales great? Who doesn't think buying goods on sale makes sense?.If you like your purchase, you have money left over. And if you change your mind, you can sell on Vinted and not lose too much..BUT.If you get no discount and change your mind..Then you take a hit..Like investing..If you paid full price for Diageo at £40 when it was 28x forward earnings in December 2021 because it's, "a great business"..And then did nothing….You've lost 38% of your money, including dividends!.Even worse – now that "dry January" is "dry all year" for many..Maybe it's still not "on sale" at 16x forward earnings today..After the hit..But if you'd bought Natwest on "January sales" back in 2022 when some were saying Banks are "bad businesses"..You're up 94%..And at 7x forward earnings today, that's a BIG discount to Diageo….And maybe AI will help banks more than liquor companies grow earnings….So where are today's "January sales"?.Not large-cap US equities with the likes of Apple / Walmart at over 30x forward earnings..Europe, emerging markets, and Asia look like "bargains" to us..But no one wants to invest there!.Yes, that's why they're "on-sale"..Remember no one wanted Natwest 3 years ago and everyone wanted Diageo..Look how that turned out… you pay a price for buying what's popular..So if you think it makes sense to look for a deal when buying: a house, car, holiday, or clothes..Why aren't you applying that to investing?."Because Value hasn't been the winning strategy for the past 15 years…".ahh.But most of those 15 years were during QE when inflation & interest rates were close to zero..When times were tough for banks..And buying dividend payers like Diageo made relative sense..And a few large tech companies grew fast for an unusually long time..But nothing lasts forever..And at 5% bond yields, those days are over..So don't take too long to do the "sensible thing" this January.."Markdowns" of today's popular items can happen quickly..Disclosure:.Ranmore Global Equity Fund holds 0% of the companies mentioned.The content of this marketing material is provided for information purposes only and is not advice.Past performance is no guarantee of future performance. Capital is at risk..Disclaimer:.Ranmore Global Equity Fund plc is approved for marketing and distribution in South Africa in terms of section 65 of the Collective Investment Schemes Control Act (2002). Collective Investment Schemes (CIS) are generally medium—to long-term investments. The value of shares in the Fund may go down and up, and past performance does not necessarily indicate future performance or returns..Read also:.Sean Peche's deep dive into BizNews portfolio boomer Palantir… alarm bells aplentyBNIC#1 Sean Peche: Overvalued US stocks and hidden global investment opportunitiesPeche's Ranmore fund excels in 2022-2023 – even though "big picture" predictions off beam

January sales: Bargain hunt in markets, not just malls – Sean Peche

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