Julian Roup – The virus is here to stay. Ep39

In Episode 39 of his new book, author Julian Roup learns a hard truth, Covid-19 is here to stay.

In case you missed Episode 38, click here.

Life in a Time of Plague

Sussex, 12th May 2020

By Julian Roup 

The official death toll in the UK from Coronavirus today stands at 40,496, according to official figures (with almost 10,000 care home residents now having died from coronavirus). But in fact, the total figure is closer to 50,000, according to a variety of organisations analysing the death count. And the Government’s message is ‘Stay Alert. Oh, that Boris and his chums had ‘Stayed Alert’ when they held the lives of the 50,000 dead in their hands three months ago.

Eight million people with underlying health conditions should be exempted from plans to get the country back to work and normal life, according to scientists who warn that easing lockdown too quickly could propel the Covid-19 death toll to 73,000 this year. About 80 per cent of the population have little to fear from a return to work, but 20 per cent are vulnerable because they have one or more common conditions such as diabetes, obesity and heart problems, say researchers from University College London (UCL) in a Lancet study published on Wednesday.

Once in a while, I hear a voice on the radio, usually a scientist, never a politician, who makes sense of it all, who gives real brutal truths. This lunchtime on BBC Radio 4, I heard a scientist, Dr John Lee, a retired professor of pathology say: “Bottom line is we are going to have to live with Covid-19.” He said nothing was yet entirely clear about what was happening with the virus, nor if our lockdown was affecting its behaviour much.

Results from many countries with more or less stringent lockdowns were showing much the same sort of results. The ‘R’ issue was so beset with statistical issues it was not reliable. He said that Sweden’s approach may prove in the long run to have been the most sensible. All epidemiology modelling for the behaviour of the pandemic was more akin to weather forecasting than laboratory science, and we know how often the weather forecasters get that wrong. We have to ask ourselves, would we be willing to suffer this kind of dramatic change to our lives based on long-term weather forecasting? Because that is essentially what we are doing with this virus.

Currently, scientists are saying that just 5 per cent of the population have been infected with the virus and to achieve ‘herd immunity’ that figure needs to be close to 70 per cent. So this is going to be a very long haul.

Governments are casting around for a way to map us out of lockdown and some, like the UK Government, have settled on the ‘R’ number as the way to go. But because it is based on changing variables like how infectious the disease is, its value is limited.

What the lockdown has done is to flatten the curve of the initial spike and help the NHS to build up extra capacity. Unless we turn ourselves into a North Korea, and keep the population locked down forever, the virus is going to spread again. What we should be doing, like Sweden, is finding a sustainable way to live with this virus. We should not go into panic mode and stay stuck indoors waiting for the sky to fall on our heads, only coming out when we think it has passed, only then for the virus to start spreading again. We have certainly bought ourselves some time by lockdown in which we have a better prepared NHS, a better understanding of the virus and supportive treatments. But we are going to have to learn to live with the virus.

So, as I listen, I understand one thing, we see through a glass darkly, we don’t understand much, we are blind, and we are fumbling our way gingerly out of a pitch-black room into a new world in which lurks the Coronavirus crocodile. God help us all. And Boris is at the helm.

Rishi Sunak, the Chancellor, is getting to seem like the good guy in all this mayhem. The UK scheme to pay wages of workers on leave because of coronavirus will be extended to October, he has said: the Government backed workers and companies going into the lockdown, and would support them coming out. Mr Sunak confirmed that employees will continue to receive 80 per cent of their monthly wages up to £2,500. But he said the Government will ask companies to “start sharing” the cost of the scheme from August. Some 7.5 million workers are now covered by the scheme, up from 6.3 million last week.

Mr Sunak said: “I’m extending the scheme because I won’t give up on the people who rely on it. Our message today is simple: we stood behind Britain’s workers and businesses as we came into this crisis, and we will stand behind them as we come through the other side.” He also rejected suggestions that some people might get ‘addicted’ to furlough if it was extended. “Nobody who is on the furlough scheme wants to be on this scheme,” the Chancellor said. “People up and down this country believe in the dignity of their work, going to work, providing for their families. It’s not their fault their business has been asked to close or asked to stay at home.

There are new rules under the ‘Stay Alert’ flag: People in England are allowed to spend more time outdoors: for example, to have a picnic in the park, provided they observe social distancing. They can also exercise as much as they wish and play certain non-contact sports like golf, tennis or basketball with one other person from outside their household. However, they are still unable to use areas like playgrounds and outdoor gyms, where there is a higher risk of close contact and touching surfaces. People in England are free to drive as far as they like to outdoor open spaces. But they should not travel to Wales, Scotland or Northern Ireland, or stay anywhere else overnight, including at a second home.

I spend the whole day outside writing in the garden, typing this book, and also doing work for clients. After supper, Jan has a Zoom meeting with local Buddhists. I watch TV for a while, Ray Donovan again. At 9pm I go outside and walk up the lane in the dark and say a quiet prayer for Kirsten, my lost nephew whose anniversary this is, and for his parents.

We are surrounded by the statistics of the dead: what is one life in the midst of all of this? But our experience of Kirsten’s death and the pain of his loss fills the number ‘One’ to bursting point, so I have some idea how 40,000 to 50,000 families are feeling tonight. Their loved ones may add to the statistics, but for them he or she meant the world and they will be experiencing the agony of disbelief, of waiting for the front door to open, and to once more see the beloved face come in. Each time the door opens they will look up to see if it is not the lost one returned. That is how it is.

The pandemic is delivering death on an industrial scale. Covid-19 is factory-farming humans; it is a cull in human flesh. Imagine the piles of dead, the equivalent size of the population of three small towns. And yet I don’t hear a sound, there are no mobs on our streets screaming blue bloody murder. There is just grief and fear. I can only wonder once more if some form of retribution will be measured out to those who swore to protect us as they took the reins of Government?

I won’t be surprised if no politician is brought to book. Look at what happened in 2008, when bankers destroyed the international economy which led to ten years of impoverishment for millions. Did you see one banker jailed? There were no guillotines in Trafalgar Square, no firing squads in Piccadilly, we just suffered under the Government rule known as ‘Austerity’ for ten years – which itself killed many people – and we got on with it. There was no magic money tree we were told. Now a forest of magic money trees has been found.  What will it take to rouse this country? What will England say, when England finally speaks?

Click here for Episode 40

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