Director’s Cut: Trump’s chaos, Wall Street’s calm and SA’s policy hangover - Anthony Ginsberg

Behind the political theatre, the US economy is surging. Anthony Ginsberg warns that South Africa’s foreign and trade policy lag reality..Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here.Support South Africa’s bastion of independent journalism, offering balanced insights on investments, business, and the political economy, by joining BizNews Premium. Register here.If you prefer WhatsApp for updates, sign up to the BizNews channel here.Watch here.Listen here.BizNews Reporter.For years, betting against the United States has felt intellectually fashionable. America was supposedly in terminal decline, hollowed out by debt, polarised politics and reckless leadership. Each new crisis was framed as the moment when the world would finally decouple, when US dominance would fade and when emerging markets, including South Africa, could realign elsewhere.And yet, the US economy keeps doing the one thing critics least expect. It keeps growing.In a wide-ranging discussion with Alec Hogg, global investment strategist Anthony Ginsberg argues that much of the world has misunderstood both Donald Trump and the American economic machine. The noise, he says, is often mistaken for weakness. The theatrics are confused for collapse. But underneath the headlines, the fundamentals remain stubbornly strong.Trump’s style has never been subtle. His rhetoric on trade, immigration and allies can sound erratic, even dangerous. He threatens tariffs one day, praises markets the next, and regularly antagonises long-standing partners. But Ginsberg makes the point that markets do not trade on tone. They trade on outcomes.And the outcomes, at least so far, have favoured the United States.Corporate earnings remain robust. Productivity, especially in technology-heavy sectors, continues to surprise on the upside. Capital keeps flowing into US equities, not out of blind loyalty, but because returns justify it. Even as commentators warn of looming recession, the data keeps refusing to cooperate.Part of this resilience lies in America’s ability to absorb shocks. The US consumer remains a powerful force. Labour markets, while cooling, have avoided collapse. Energy independence has insulated the economy from global supply disruptions in a way few countries can match. When stress appears, it tends to be localised rather than systemic.Trump, controversial as he is, has also proven adept at leveraging uncertainty. His negotiating posture is often maximalist, but it serves a purpose. By unsettling counterparties, he forces renegotiation. Markets may dislike unpredictability, but they reward leverage. In trade talks, America still holds most of the cards.This is where the conversation turns uncomfortably close to home for South Africa.Pretoria has increasingly positioned itself as part of an alternative global bloc, rhetorically distancing itself from Washington while deepening ties with China, Russia and the broader BRICS alliance. The language suggests a belief that the future lies elsewhere, that the US is yesterday’s power.Ginsberg is blunt about the risk of that assumption.South Africa, he argues, is not large enough to play ideological games with its trading partners. The country depends on access to global capital, export markets and stable financial relationships. The US remains one of the largest sources of investment, directly and indirectly. Alienating that relationship in pursuit of abstract geopolitical alignment is a gamble the economy can ill afford.This does not mean blind allegiance to Washington. It means realism.China’s growth is slowing. Its property sector remains fragile, its demographics are deteriorating and capital controls limit investor confidence. Europe is struggling with stagnation and energy insecurity. Emerging markets, while promising, cannot yet replace the scale and depth of US markets.The uncomfortable truth is that the American system still works better than most alternatives.Trump’s critics often argue that his policies will eventually undermine this strength. Tariffs could fuel inflation. Political division could erode institutional trust. Foreign policy unpredictability could push allies away. All of these risks exist.But markets have heard these warnings before.They heard them during Trump’s first term. They heard them during trade wars, impeachment proceedings and pandemic chaos. Each time, investors were told that this was unsustainable. Each time, US assets recovered faster than expected.This does not mean the US is invincible. It means it is adaptable.For South African investors, the lesson is not to cheer Trump or to ignore his flaws. It is to separate politics from capital allocation. Emotion is expensive in markets. Ideology even more so.Ginsberg cautions against mistaking moral positioning for economic strategy. Governments may posture. Investors cannot afford to. The job is not to pick heroes or villains, but to follow incentives, productivity and cash flow.America continues to lead in areas that matter economically. Technology, innovation, financial depth and entrepreneurial culture remain unmatched. Even when politics look chaotic, the underlying system keeps generating value.That reality creates a tension for countries like South Africa, which often want to signal independence from Western power structures while still relying on them financially. It is a balancing act that requires discipline and honesty.The danger, Ginsberg suggests, is in believing one’s own rhetoric.The US economy has been declared finished many times before. It has been written off after wars, recessions, scandals and crises. Each time, it has adapted, reset and moved forward.Trump may yet test that resilience again. His return to the centre of global politics guarantees volatility. But volatility is not the same as collapse.For now, the American economy remains what it has long been: noisy, imperfect, deeply frustrating, and still the most powerful engine in global markets.Ignoring that fact does not make it disappear.

Director’s Cut: Trump’s chaos, Wall Street’s calm and SA’s policy hangover - Anthony Ginsberg

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