Trump could take the shine off Ramaphosa’s G20 Presidency – Dr Jakkie Cilliers ISS

This week, South Africa assumed the Presidency of the G20, comprising many of the world's largest developing and developed economies. It is the first time an African nation chairs the bloc. Ramaphosa said at the launch in Parliament in Cape Town that inclusivity would be a key feature of South Africa's leadership of the G20 and that he would continue the developmental agendas of the previous G20 presidencies of India, Indonesia, and Brazil and bring the development priorities of Africa and the Global South to the fore. The G20 is "extremely prestigious, says Dr. Jakkie Cilliers, Head of the African Futures and Innovation Programme at the Institute of Security Studies in Pretoria and it is an opportunity to showcase South Africa and ensure it is visible on the international stage. The newly re-elected US President could, however, take a bit of the shine off Ramaphosa's G20 Presidency, according to Dr. Cilliers. President-elect Trump, he said, is not committed to climate change or sustainable development or multilateralism—the issues that are important to South Africa. South Africa will hand over the G20 Presidency to the US in November at a G20 summit next year, and Dr. Cilliers said there is a big question mark over Trump's attendance. The newly elected US President has in the past lumped African countries into a basket of "shithole countries.".Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here..The seventh BizNews Conference, BNC#7, is to be held in Hermanus from March 11 to 13, 2025. The 2025 BizNews Conference is designed to provide an excellent opportunity for members of the BizNews community to interact directly with the keynote speakers, old (and new) friends from previous BNC events – and to interact with members of the BizNews team. Register for BNC#7 here..Watch here.Listen here.Extended transcript of the interview ___STEADY_PAYWALL___.Linda van Tilburg .I'm Linda van Tilburg for BizNews. President Cyril Ramaphosa launched South Africa's G20 presidency this week. The G20 operates on a system of current, previous, and next holders, which means South Africa will be working with Brazil and the United States. We have Dr. Jakkie Cilliers, head of the African Futures and Innovation Programme at the Institute for Security Studies, in the studio to discuss this. .Linda van Tilburg . So, what implications does South Africa's G20 presidency have for the country?.Jakkie Cilliers . Well, it's extremely prestigious. These are the 19 largest economies in the world, plus the European Union and the African Union. South Africa is the only African member of the G20. This is an opportunity to showcase South Africa, to attract investment, and to ensure the country is visible on the international stage. Particularly at a time when the Trump presidency has brought a great deal of volatility. People are concerned about the future. What's interesting is that South Africa will hand over to the Trump presidency in November of next year, and Trump is supposed to visit South Africa. Well, let's see if he comes. That would be a huge occasion—hosting the top 20 economies in the world. So, for South Africa, this is a big deal..Linda van Tilburg . How do you think South Africa can leverage this presidency to its advantage?.Jakkie Cilliers (07:44.3).Before Trump was elected, I would have been more optimistic. If you look at what happened at the recent Rio summit, a range of issues were raised, such as revitalising the World Trade Organisation, which will be difficult under Trump. But it's important for South Africa to engage with the U.S., and the G20 presidency provides a platform for that. South Africa can use this opportunity to make sure that AGOA continues and that trade relations don't become hostage to tariff protectionism. Let's face it—Africa is not a priority for Trump. But this is still an opportunity to show Americans and others why investing in Africa, particularly South Africa, is important. It's going to be a difficult and turbulent year, but it's crucial to keep trying..Linda van Tilburg .The G20 plays an important role, but Trump doesn't have much regard for international organisations like NATO and the United Nations. How do you think he will view the G20?.Jakkie Cilliers .He has a very transactional approach to almost everything. He's a real estate dealer looking for deals. To get something from the U.S., you have to offer him something in return. There are already concerns that he may unilaterally recognise Somaliland, which would disrupt African politics. South Africa needs to present itself to Trump as a gateway to Southern Africa. Many U.S. companies have been active in South Africa for decades, but trade and investment from the U.S. to Africa, and to South Africa, has been declining. We need to make the case for why South Africa is important—not only today, but also in the future. That will require clear business proposals that can attract U.S. interest, especially given our young and growing population..Linda van Tilburg .So what can we offer? What can we trade?.Jakkie Cilliers . South Africa is the second-largest economy in Africa. We have strong institutions, and we've been able to resist state capture. We also have the best, though sometimes problematic, infrastructure in the region. South Africa is a gateway to Southern Africa. If you want to enter Africa, South Africa—with its judiciary system, Bill of Rights, and legal framework—is the obvious entry point into the rest of the continent. Many U.S. companies, in particular, are concerned about the regulatory environment in Africa, so they set up in South Africa to operate from here. That must be our major selling point. For example, consider Angola and the DRC. Despite their vast potential, the regulatory challenges, corruption, and poor governance make it difficult for large companies to invest there. Stability, good governance, and the strength of our regulatory and judicial systems are key aspects we should emphasise..Linda van Tilburg .Given Trump's warning that he would impose 100% tariffs on any BRICS countries that accept a BRICS currency instead of the dollar, how should we view that warning?.Jakkie Cilliers .There's no possibility of a BRICS currency. What the BRICS countries have been discussing is trading more in their own currencies, instead of using the U.S. dollar, which adds significant costs. There's been a bit of media hype around this, but it's practically impossible to establish a BRICS currency. The BRICS countries would need monetary stability and other requirements to do that, which they don't have. What people want is to move away from the U.S. dollar for trade, but we have to be careful how we message that. South Africa's close relations and support for the Palestinian cause could be a concern, especially in the U.S. Fortunately, we now have a government of national unity, which helps mediate some of the potential issues. Helen Zille just returned from the U.S. and made the point that if it weren't for the Democratic Alliance, South Africa would probably have faced a high risk of being kicked out of AGOA. She's right..Linda van Tilburg.So, does the fact that Trump is becoming president take the shine off South Africa's G20 presidency?.Jakkie Cilliers .Yes, it does. I've just returned from trips to Istanbul and Addis Ababa, and the concern is palpable. Trump brings uncertainty and volatility to everything. It will likely be a story of short-term gains for the U.S. and long-term pain for others. For example, the U.S. dollar is already appreciating, money is flowing back to the U.S., and developing countries will struggle. Trump is not committed to climate change, sustainable development goals, or multilateralism—issues that are important to South Africa. We're heading into difficult times. Then, we have events in the Middle East, what's happening in Ukraine, and the competition with China. Who knows how Trump will react? All we know is that he will prioritise American transactional interests. His approach is narrow, and his focus is on short-term gains that benefit him and billionaires like Elon Musk. Democracy in the U.S. has been significantly undermined. In some indices, the U.S. is no longer considered a democracy because it's essentially being run as a family business. This is a global concern. We're hoping that the European Union and other powers will help mediate these influences, but what's happening in the U.S. mirrors what's happening in much of Africa in terms of politics, with money influencing decision-making and family businesses controlling government..Linda van Tilburg . Is it a snub for South Africa that President Biden didn't visit during his term and then went to Angola instead of any Southern African countries?.Jakkie Cilliers.No, Africa is simply not a priority for the U.S. It's only important to the extent that it's part of their competition with China. This was true under Biden, Obama, and it won't change. Biden's visit to Angola, even after promising that the U.S. would be "all in" on Africa, reflects the reality that Africa isn't a priority for the U.S..Linda van Tilburg .There are rumours that President Ramaphosa likes the limelight of the G20 presidency but might leave soon after. What's your take on that?.Jakkie Cilliers.I don't know. I think the Government of National Unity will last until the ANC's next elective conference at the end of 2027. Both the ANC and the Democratic Alliance have everything to lose by stepping away from the current arrangement. To achieve significant economic growth, poverty reduction, and inequality reduction, it will take time. In our modelling, we don't see significant impact until about 2030. The Government of National Unity should survive beyond the next presidential election in 2029. It would be disastrous if the ANC were to align with the elements that have been involved in state capture. We need to continue with pro-market policies, and that requires keeping the centre intact—both left and right..Read also:.What Trump's presidency could mean for SA: Insights from Jakkie CilliersScenarios point to binary future for SA post-2024: prosperity or penury – Jakkie CilliersANC instability spilling over becoming 'threat to ordinary South Africans' – Dr Jakkie Cilliers

Trump could take the shine off Ramaphosa’s G20 Presidency – Dr Jakkie Cilliers ISS

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