How world sees Africa: More resilient against Covid-19? – Financial Times

The narrative on Africa and the outbreak of the novel coronavirus is that the continent will be hit in a significant way and that it would not have the health systems to respond. It has been described as "extremely devastating for Africa", with Save the Children warning that millions could die. It prompted governments in Africa to clamp down swiftly and in many cases, including in South Africa, authorities were more decisive than European nations because of the prevalence of HIV/Aids cases. But so far, the worst predictions about Africa and Covid-19 have fortunately not played out and researchers are puzzled why reported Covid-19 death tolls in African countries are lower than elsewhere. In this article in the Financial Times, scientists look at various factors that could make Africans more resilient, but they caution that it is too soon to draw any conclusions, that cases are now rising sharply and that Africa may simply be behind the curve. Added to the factors that the FT lifts out that may contribute to resilience, is Africa's experience in dealing with viral outbreaks including the Ebola virus and HIV/Aids. In South Africa, an HIV infrastructure which includes an army of community workers are deployed in communities which CNN has described as South Africa's" best weapon in fighting Covid-19." – Linda van Tilburg.By Thulasizwe Sithole.The novel coronavirus was first diagnosed in Egypt in a Chinese national in mid-February and it has spread across the continent since then. Many experts including Microsoft Founder Bill Gates have warned that it could claim as many as 10 million lives "if left unchecked in a region of crowded slums and flimsy health systems." The Financial Times reports that it has however been two months since the first case and there is tentative hope that "the continent could be spared the worst of the pandemic.".___STEADY_PAYWALL___.Random tests last week in Nairobi's Kibera slum have only yielded three positive results, which surprised grassroots organisers. The official tally of cases of Covid-19 in Africa is around 32,000 out of the world's total of 3 million and only 1,400 deaths have been registered. "The numbers may greatly underestimate the true burden" but case workers said there is little evidence that there had been unexplained outbreaks of the virus. "The figures suggest that a continent of about 1.2 billion people had suffered fewer Covid-19 deaths than the US was recording each day.".Researchers, including Murithi Mutiga from the Nairobi-based Crisis Group think-tank however said, it was too soon to conclude that Africa had dodged a bullet. The Director of the OAU's Centre for Disease Control and Prevention, Prof John Nkengasong has warned against drawing firm conclusions. Prof Nkengasong said there was "no hard evidence" that Africa's younger population, the warmer weather or BCG vaccinations against TB "had any impact on the disease's spread." The FT says it may be that Africa is "simply behind the curve, with the pandemic picking up speed now." Prof Nkengasong pointed to the fact that cases on the continent rose by 40% in a week and that testing levels were much lower than in Europe with 400 per million in Africa. He prefers to focus on the decisive action taken by governments in "shutting frontiers and doing lockdowns.".Other academics agreed, with Professor of Medicine at the University of East Anglia in the United Kingdom, Prof Paul Hunter saying authorities in Africa should be cautious. He however said that he thought "there could be reasons to suspect the virus might be less deadly in Africa where droplet-spread diseases, such as flu have tended to spread more slowly." An example of this is the SARS 2002/03 outbreak where there was only one infection in Cape Town. Other mitigating factors that prof Hunter highlighted, were the youthful population with a median age of only 19.4 years compared to 40 in Europe and the US, which reduces the risk of high fatalities. He also did not believe there was strong evidence that malnutrition was a "contributing factor to mortality"..The FT has used overall fatality statistics for deaths in Africa and said that in the case of South Africa, figures from the Medical Research Council indicated that "deaths in the year up to 14 April were generally within the bounds of expectation." One of the graphs in the FT shows that deaths are actually down slightly on usual levels due to a sharp fall in homicides and road traffic fatalities..Oxford Professor Trudy Lang cautioned that it was too soon to jump to conclusions about the spread of Covid-19 in Africa, but said it was possible that the spread of the disease was different in Africa with more asymptomatic cases. There was even the possibility that conditions like tuberculosis did not make Africans more vulnerable to Covid-19 but "conceivably making patients more resistant because of previously triggered immune response." She stressed the need for more testing and measuring.

How world sees Africa: More resilient against Covid-19? – Financial Times

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