Beware the dreaded ANC/EFF coalition
There is one thing worse for South Africa than an ANC that remains in power in 2024, and that's an ANC that bands together with the red berets, writes Mpiyakhe Dhlamini. The corruption and ineptitude of the one will only be egged on by the other's radicalised love for governance styles pervasive in Zimbabwe, Venezuela, and Russia. Where the ANC takes a moderate stance on a policy issue, for example, you can bet your last Zim dollar, their kingmaker partners will throw their toys out the cot in pursuit of the nationalisation and redistribution of everything. The EFF's power in a coalition with the ANC would far exceed the votes it garners at the polls – but that wouldn't matter. If you listen to what independent analyst Dr Frans Cronje says, he believes the ANC and EFF are natural bedfellows. The author opines below in this piece first published on Daily Friend that: "Hopefully these parties [the other opposition parties] can reduce the ANC share of the vote enough to make an ANC/EFF coalition an impossibility." Coalition politics – a relatively new phenomenon in South Africa – is no doubt being tested. The shenanigans ongoing in Johannesburg are a case in point. Residents have been left feeling like they're living in a twilight zone with the DA's former mayor Mpho Phalatse still referring to herself as the mayor, headed to court next week to get her job back from the ANC's Dada Morero, who was voted in after Phalatse's ousting in a motion of no confidence. Dhlamini points to the more commonly-held belief that on top of creating parallel structures to political parties, one needs to state-proof communities. This must be done to fill the void left by a crumbling national government incapable of providing consistent water, electricity, housing, safety and security, or a growing economy, for its citizens. – Michael Appel
Coalitions are not the only way to save South Africa
By Mpiyakhe Dhlamini*
Now that another coalition has failed in Johannesburg, ordinary South Africans have to start thinking about a plan B beyond politics. It's now clear that even if the ANC falls significantly below 50% in the national vote in 2024, the ego, greed and strategic ineptitude of the opposition can still keep them in power. That means that all the problems associated with an ANC administration will likely remain with us.
The first thing that we should address is that a weakened ANC government is still better than an ANC government that is comfortably in power. If the party has to share power with other parties this is still better than their controlling the legislature and executive on their own. The mere fact of having to negotiate with parties like the Patriotic Alliance, DA, ActionSA, and others will tend to moderate their worst impulses, so an opposition vote is not wasted in that sense. The exception of course is an ANC that just needs EFF votes to stay in power: that would be worse than the ANC running things on its own.
The best way to make an ANC/EFF alliance unlikely is to empower the non-EFF opposition parties that have demonstrated an ability to take away votes from the ANC. These parties are the IFP and ActionSA. Hopefully, these parties can reduce the ANC share of the vote enough to make an ANC/EFF coalition an impossibility.
Better days
Long before 2024 however, everyone who wants to see better days for South Africa has to do two things: first they have to determine to stay in this country no matter how bad it gets. The difference between the countries that eventually recover and those that don't is the prevalence of the right ideas in general society. South Africa is blessed in this regard with our strong liberal tradition, older than even African nationalism. We have a large minority of people who understand individual liberty.
If South Africa loses its liberals, it's unlikely to ever recover. It will just keep slipping further and further into poverty and lawlessness. This is exemplified by Zimbabwe which seems unable to break out of its death spiral. The people with the good ideas have all fled. It also helps if the people with good ideas are also part of the productive segment of society, which brings us to the second point.
South Africans will need to set up parallel structures that are small enough not to be threatening to the central government. It starts with taking care of you and your family's basic needs like water, food, security, and power. Just doing that can be a very expensive exercise so savings and the means of protecting the value of these savings will be required. Simply saving as much as you can is something that everyone who earns an income can do and it will become extremely important as the country collapses.
Setting up these parallel structures requires collaboration with the private sector, both formal and informal. It requires working with the people in your community. And it requires knowing the importance of institutions, how to set them up, how to maintain them, and how to grow them. Many other people in South Africa can learn from the good work being done by the likes of Solidarity and Afriforum, although for those of us just starting out, we won't be able to operate at the scale those other organisations are able to operate at.
Community work
The best way to start working within your community is identifying organisations that already do work in the community and are trusted, such as churches and schools. After ensuring you and your family have their basic needs taken care of, the next step is helping existing community organisations do the same. This is the quickest way to build trust within your community, it will not be your guns that defend you from the central government but your neighbours, whether they are armed or not, by refusing to collaborate with a destructive regime.
Of course, for those who cannot afford the sacrifice all of this will take, financially and otherwise, moving to another country is probably your best bet. But even then one must be careful – the entire world has entered an era of instability. The assumptions that once held just a few months ago no longer seem as certain as they once were. Who could have predicted that European countries would be suffering from energy insecurity at the same time as South Africa is? Who could have predicted the lockdowns and the damage they caused? Think carefully about your next step and don't stop learning, it could save you and your family's lives.
After having secured your place, just keep promoting freedom and the ideas necessary for any society to prosper, whether this is done directly by speaking out or by funding people and organisations that share your values and speak out on your behalf, or joining such organisations. Eventually we know that statism will fail, in whatever form it takes, whether it is socialism, fascism, or nationalism, or any related ideology. When that time comes, perhaps people will be desperate enough to choose liberty.
- Mpiyakhe Dhlamini is a data scientist and researcher. He is also a policy fellow at the IRR. He believes passionately that individual liberty is the only proven means to rescue countries from poverty.
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