🔒 Ramaphoria is over; now it’s Ramageddon – UK warning

EDINBURGH — President Cyril Ramaphosa has been trying his best to impress the world with his vision. But, his efforts have not paid off, with local and international analysts pondering how land expropriation might work under his leadership. Meanwhile, confidence in the new president is waning fast, with recent news that South Africa is sliding into recession pricking the Ramaphoria bubbles that haven’t already burst. Ramaphosa is between a rock and a hard place: trying to please a business-minded capitalist elite as well as the impoverished masses who have experienced life getting worse under a corruption-riddled ANC. – Jackie Cameron 

By Thulasizwe Sithole

South African political commentators have told the UK media that Ramaphoria, the positivity inspired by Cyril Ramaphosa’s appointment as president, has dissipated in a little over six months.

This is a blow to the country, as Ramaphosa has been actively trying to improve South Africa’s reputation in the eyes of international investors.

Local analysts don’t blame Ramaphosa, arguing that the damage was done while Jacob Zuma was at the helm. But that is cold comfort for South Africans, who recently heard the news that the country is now in a recession.

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The Guardian, a respected international news organisation headquartered in the UK, outlined how Ramaphoria has fizzled out in an article entitled “How South Africa’s Ramaphoria turned into ‘Ramageddon'”.

“The most immediate bad news has been economic. Last week official statistics surprised most observers by revealing the country was in recession,” it says.

It notes that he prospect of a potentially catastrophic downgrade by ratings agencies – that would make state borrowing more expensive – now looms. Forecasts put real economic growth at less than 1% this year. Unemployment – already very high – is rising and inflation is hitting poor people’s budgets hard.”

The Guardian quotes Ralph Mathekga, an author, saying: “The economy is supposed to be his strong point … but there is just no confidence. The story of the new dawn is just no longer credible.”

Then there is the thorny, complex and polarising issue of land reform, points out The Guardian. “The main focus has been on farmland – of which 72% is owned by whites, who constitute less than 10% of the population. Late last year the African National Congress, in power since the end of the apartheid regime, with the first free elections in 1994, committed to more effective measures to redistribute land.”

But a decision to press ahead with a constitutional amendment to expropriate without compensation – with a parliamentary vote due next month – has rattled investors, says the newspaper. In addition, land grab talk prompted Donald Trump to tweet an unfounded rightwing claim that white farms were being seized by the government and farmers suffering “large-scale killing”.

Ramaphosa has a deadline too, it says. “The ANC faces a tricky election next year, which could see its share of the vote dip below 50% for the first time. A leftwing faction within the party, and the populist opposition Economic Freedom Fighters, have pushed for radical measures on land. The president, a pro-business moderate, is profoundly sceptical but has been forced to make concessions, one adviser said.”

Corruption is another problem singled out by The Guardian. “A judicial inquiry ordered by a public anti-graft ombudsman after allegations of improper relations between members of Zuma’s team and a family of rich businessmen has dominated news. The hearings have complemented Ramaphosa’s own efforts to weaken vast and entrenched patronage networks.

“Efforts are being made to rehabilitate the tax collection agency, elite police investigation teams, security services and the prosecution service, as well as clean out the inefficient and hugely indebted state utilities repeatedly named in corruption allegations,” it continues.

Ramaphosa must tread carefully, cautions the publication. “Enemies in the ANC already hope to use projected losses in next year’s election to justify a special party conference that could demand a no-confidence vote,” it says.

“Cyril has made good inroads but if he goes any further he will be threatening powerful people who he needs to keep on board for the moment,” it quotes Mathekga as saying.

“The irony is this guy finally gets the presidency and it’s a poisoned chalice,” says William Gumede, the chair of Democracy Works Foundation, a South African thinktank. 

“Mandela’s dream is not dead because there are people, black and white, who will fight for it, and there always will be, but now we have to rebuild it,” he tells The Guardian.