The oil price was sent reeling over the weekend when a number of Saudi Arabia’s oil facilities were hit by drone attacks. Much of Saudi Arabia’s oil production capacity has been crippled by the strikes, and many US authorities are blaming Iran for the attacks, although Houthi rebels in Yemen publicly claimed credit for them.
Saudi Arabia has been intervening in neighbouring Yemen’s civil war for about four years now, aided by the US. Among the combatants in the war are the rebel Houthis, which are backed by Iran. Thus, regardless of whether the strikes originated in Yemen, the US seems to be blaming Iran.
So, the big question is – will we be headed for another US/Middle East military adventure, with Iran as the target this time?
___STEADY_PAYWALL___
It’s not an easy question to answer and there are a lot of factors at play. The last time the US went big in the Middle East, the target, Iraq, was less formidable, the president, George W. Bush, was more belligerent, and the world was more “on the same page” about the need for military intervention. The situation today is quite different.
Iran is not Iraq
Iran is a larger and wealthier country than Iraq, with a much more formidable military. Iranian military operatives are hard at work in Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria and are experts in irregular warfare. Iran’s chief Middle Eastern antagonist is US-backed Israel, with which it is involved in a long-running proxy war. Iran is also engaged against Saudi Arabia, another US ally, through its proxies in Yemen.
Thus, any US military action would risk the whole region going up in flames, with severe consequences for the globe.
Trump is not Bush
Donald Trump is a less belligerent president than George W. Bush. Although Trump talks tough, he is strongly opposed to military strikes, as illustrated by his refusal to strike Iran after it shot down a US drone. Indeed, he is significantly less military-minded than most of those that surround him in Washington DC. It is, of course, possible that the unprecedented provocation offered by this attack will spur even Trump to roll out the tanks.
The Saudi strike is not 9/11
While the attack on Saudi oil infrastructure is a serious escalation of regional tensions and is likely to have widespread economic effects, it is not an attack on US soil or citizens. The last time America ventured into a declaration of war was in the wake of the so-called 9/11 attacks on domestic US targets.
It could be argued that the current state of the Middle East is essentially just the latest phase in the conflict caused by 9/11 and the decision to invade Iraq. But few Americans feel particularly emotionally devastated by the strike on Saudi oil plants and there is not a clamour for action domestically.
No one else is on board
The invasion of Iraq took place under cover of international agreement. While the whole thing was pretty clearly a ginned-up response to an unrelated terrorist attack (9/11), it enjoyed the fig leaf of a coalition of willing international partners. It may not technically have been legal, but it was legal-ish.
This time, the US is looking a little more isolated. Thanks to Trump’s slash-and-burn approach to international diplomacy – which has included launching trade wars against close allies, threatening to end NATO, and tearing up dozens of global agreements (including the nuclear deal with Iran that may have prevented this whole mess in the first place) – America’s traditional allies are not lining up to invade Iran. Its closest security partner, the UK, is pretty thoroughly distracted with its own internal political and democratic crisis, and Europe has actively pursued an Iranian strategy that is diametrically opposed to America’s.
On the other hand…
All of the above are good, solid reasons to think America will not be going to war with Iran any time soon. But there are plenty of reasons why it may do so anyway.
For one thing, the US has very few other options. Trump has been aggressively pursuing a strategy of “maximum pressure” on Iran. After ripping up the US/Iran nuclear deal signed by Obama – apparently purely because Obama was involved – Trump began an aggressive campaign of economic sanctions against Iran. He had major Iranian power players like the Revolutionary Guard declared to be terrorist organisations, and he has made it almost impossible for Iran to export oil by blocking Iranian access to the US financial system (through which virtually all global trade is conducted).
Given all this, there’s not much more he can do in terms of economic pressure – he is already bringing to bear the full might of America’s global economic dominance. Iran is already suffering enormously, with food and medicine shortages and a brutal recession. With limited capacity to inflict further harm on Iran’s economy, military intervention may be all that’s left on the table.
