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Moody’s open to upgrading SA, but ONLY if it conducts reforms
JOHANNESBURG — Moody’s kept some South Africans up late on Friday night as it was expected to release its latest assessment on the country. However, that assessment was postponed amid the rating agency saying that it would provide an update after the mini-budget speech later this month. On the one hand, you can understand the logic to this. But Moody’s delay also came in the same week that South Africa appointed YET ANOTHER new finance minister in the form of Tito Mboweni. Further to this, the country is grappling with a recession and little in the way of meaningful reform. Nevertheless, we live in hope that a miracle will happen and that our politicians will see the light – if that happens, Moody’s could upgrade us (but probably only next year). If this doesn’t happen, it’s, unfortunately, going to be pretty uncertain times and much of our economic fate will hinge on a possible Moody’s downgrade. – Gareth van Zyl
(Bloomberg) — South Africa could see its credit rating upgraded if it successfully implements structural reforms that would raise economic growth and stabilise the nation’s debt burden, Moody’s Investors Service said.
Reforms to state-owned companies that reduce contingent liabilities would exert upward pressure on ratings, Lucie Villa, a vice president and senior credit officer who’s the lead analyst for South Africa at Moody’s, said in a research report Tuesday. Conversely, the assessment would be cut if the state doesn’t stabilize debt and liabilities, she wrote.
Ratings companies have flagged state firms’ finances as a concern in recent years. Moody’s is the only one of the three major credit-rating companies that still assesses South Africa’s debt at investment grade. Optimism following President Cyril Ramaphosa’s ascent to power since December after Jacob Zuma’s corruption-plagued tenure of almost nine years has faded somewhat as structural reforms weren’t implemented fast enough.
Government guarantees to state companies are at more than 450 billion rand ($32 billion), according to data from the National Treasury. The state’s exposure to this increased to 64.5 percent in the past fiscal year from 54.4 percent as companies drew on the guarantees.
The economy is struggling to emerge from a first-half recession. Last year, a widening fiscal deficit and slower economic growth projections led S&P Global Ratings and Fitch Ratings Ltd. to strip the country of its investment rating, sending yields skyrocketing and the rand weaker.
The rand weakened 0.3 percent to 14.2041 per dollar as of 7:22 a.m. in Johannesburg after rallying almost 1.5 percent on Tuesday. Yields on rand-denominated bonds due in December 2026 were little changed at 9.16 percent.
Cyril Ramaphosa: The Audio Biography
Listen to the story of Cyril Ramaphosa's rise to presidential power, narrated by our very own Alec Hogg.