Lesetja Kganyago, governor of South Africa's reserve bank, speaks to reporters during an unveiling event for South African rand coin designs commemorating the 25th anniversary of democracy in Pretoria, South Africa, on Wednesday, June 5, 2019. South African Finance Minister Tito Mboweni backed the central bank’s existing mandate of targeting inflation only hours after the ruling party’s top decision-making body called on the government to expand the remit to include economic growth and job creation. Photographer: Waldo Swiegers/Bloomberg
Lesetja Kganyago, governor of South Africa's reserve bank, speaks to reporters during an unveiling event for South African rand coin designs commemorating the 25th anniversary of democracy in Pretoria, South Africa, on Wednesday, June 5, 2019. South African Finance Minister Tito Mboweni backed the central bank’s existing mandate of targeting inflation only hours after the ruling party’s top decision-making body called on the government to expand the remit to include economic growth and job creation. Photographer: Waldo Swiegers/Bloomberg

Rates cut another 50bps – charts show SARB’s U-turn due to Covid-19

The economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic has turned South Africa’s typically hawkish monetary policy committee into doves.
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The South African Reserve Bank has announced another 50bps rate cut, taking the repo rate to 3.75% and prime to 7.25%. Bloomberg reports the SARB has cut the benchmark interest rate by more than a third this year in a bid to support the economy that could contract by as much 16.1% due to the Covid-19 pandemic and a nationwide lockdown to curb its spread. The rand, which is benefiting from a weaker US dollar, is holding firm under R18.00 to the dollar – last trading at R17.81 to the greenback. – Editor

South Africa cuts key rate fourth straight time to record low

By Prinesha Naidoo

Charts show South African central bank 'U-turn' due to virus

By Prinesha Naidoo

(Bloomberg) – The economic fallout of the coronavirus pandemic has turned South Africa's typically hawkish monetary policy committee into doves.

The five-member panel, headed by Governor Lesetja Kganyago, has cut the nation's benchmark interest rate by more than a third this year and again eased policy on Thursday in a bid to support an economy that could contract by as much 16.1% due to the virus and restrictions to curb its spread.

Yet another reduction in the rate is "quite a U-turn" in the stance of a committee that often cited concerns about a weak currency and its possible secondary impact on inflation as barriers to easing, said Elize Kruger, an independent economist. The rand has lost almost a quarter of its value against the dollar this year.

"There is definitely a difference in the way they look at the current set of circumstances," she said. "It has completely changed the approach. And rightly so, because if we're not going to try and save this economy, what will we have left over?"

These charts show how the committee's stance has evolved:

Less than a month after its biggest cut in more than a decade, the central bank reduced the repurchase rate by another 100 basis points to 4.25% at an unscheduled meeting in April, and yet again by 50bps on Thursday. That's the lowest since the rate was introduced in 1998 and marked the first time since the global financial crisis that the MPC moved lower at four consecutive meetings. All but one of the 20 economists in a Bloomberg survey expected the cut on Thursday.

While the MPC has a track record of being cautious when easing and has repeatedly said that monetary policy alone can't help an economy that slumped into a recession even before the virus was detected in South Africa, all five members of the panel voted to cut the key rate at every one of its meetings this year.

Inflation that is forecast to remain at or below the preferred 4.5% midpoint of the target range on average until 2021 should give the central bank room to respond to the turmoil caused by the virus.

What Bloomberg's Economist Says…

"I don't think there is anything unusual about the SARB's response. I think it is appropriate for a crisis. In 2009, they cut rates by 450bps – 4x100bps plus one 50bps cut. The contraction we are looking at now is even steeper, more than 5% vs 1.5% in 2009. So if anything the response is still relatively tame, especially if you look at the level of the real rate. The low inflation environment, compared to 2009, and also lower inflation expectations, give the SARB more scope to act in our view." – Boingotlo Gasealahwe, Africa Economist

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