What Trump’s presidency could mean for SA: Insights from Jakkie Cilliers
In the wake of Donald Trump's latest election victory, Jakkie Cilliers, founder of the Institute for Security Studies, shares his concerns about Trump's transactional approach to international relations and what it could spell for South Africa. From trade to climate commitments, Alec Hogg of BizNews delves into how Trump's policies might impact the continent's economy and geopolitical standing.
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In a conversation with Alec Hogg of BizNews, Jakkie Cilliers, founder of the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), offers a detailed analysis of how Donald Trump's recent election victory could affect Africa. From dwindling U.S.-Africa engagement to shifts in trade policies, Cilliers' insights highlight the potential setbacks that Africa, and particularly South Africa, may face under Trump's return to power. With Trump's well-known preference for transactional, deal-driven politics, Cilliers warns of the likely challenges ahead for African economies and governance.
Africa's Waning Priority in U.S. Foreign Policy
Cilliers is candid about his initial reaction to Trump's victory, expressing both shock and concern. He notes that, with Trump's previous administration, the U.S. had already begun deprioritizing Africa, while competition with China for influence on the continent remained steady. Under President Joe Biden, there were efforts to partner with African nations, such as the U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit, to foster closer ties. However, Cilliers anticipates these engagements will diminish under Trump's administration.
"Trump's approach is all about what he can gain, not about establishing partnerships or helping Africa," Cilliers states. He explains that Trump's foreign policy is highly transactional and rooted in self-interest. This differs starkly from the principles-driven diplomacy that has characterized past American presidencies. Cilliers warns that this attitude could further isolate Africa and reduce its importance on the U.S. agenda.
The Future of African Trade with the U.S.
One major area of concern is the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which grants duty-free access for African goods into the United States. Cilliers notes that the act has enabled South Africa and a few other African countries to expand their trade with the U.S., with key sectors such as vehicle exports benefiting significantly. However, Trump's well-documented aversion to such concessions could jeopardize AGOA.
According to Cilliers, Trump's "America First" stance emphasizes tariffs and prioritizes American interests over international partnerships. If he decides to withdraw from or impose tariffs on AGOA, it could deal a severe blow to African economies reliant on the U.S. market. South Africa, in particular, would feel the impact, as AGOA has supported the growth of its automotive and manufacturing exports.
Hogg presses Cilliers on how significant this threat might be for jobs in South Africa. Although Cilliers does not provide exact numbers, he affirms that the U.S. market remains crucial for South African exports, particularly manufactured goods. Losing duty-free access to the U.S. would likely reduce demand for South African exports, endangering jobs and potentially hampering economic growth.
Shifts in Global Financial Support
Beyond trade, Cilliers raises concerns about financial institutions like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Under Biden, these institutions were working toward reforms that would facilitate access to affordable financing for developing nations, including many in Africa. However, Cilliers is doubtful that Trump will pursue these reforms.
Access to more affordable financing would be a significant boon to African countries, allowing them to tackle infrastructure, healthcare, and education needs without overburdening national debt. Trump's focus, however, is expected to lean toward favoring American business interests, sidelining reforms that would benefit Africa. This shift could curtail Africa's access to much-needed funding and development support.
Climate Change: A Reversal of Commitments?
Trump's stance on climate change also has significant implications for Africa. During his previous term, Trump withdrew the U.S. from the Paris Agreement, which aims to combat global warming. This move drew criticism globally and worried nations vulnerable to climate change. Africa, with its high susceptibility to climate impacts, stands to lose from Trump's likely return to climate rollback policies.
Cilliers points out that Africa has been one of the regions most affected by climate change. From unpredictable weather patterns to droughts and floods, the continent's economies and agricultural sectors are at risk. Without global cooperation on climate action, Africa could face even harsher consequences. Trump's expected retreat from climate commitments not only threatens Africa's environment but could also stymie economic resilience efforts against climate-related disruptions.
Political Tensions: The Israel Factor
Another issue Cilliers raises is Trump's staunch support for Israel, which could create diplomatic tension for South Africa. The country's government has taken a more critical stance on Israel, which could lead to strained relations with the U.S. under Trump. In a transactional political climate, South Africa's position on Israel could jeopardize its trade advantages and diplomatic standing with the U.S.
The risks extend beyond political disagreements. Cilliers notes that if South Africa is perceived as hostile toward Israel, it could lose its place in initiatives like AGOA. Such a loss could undermine South Africa's economic stability and limit opportunities for growth. In the delicate geopolitical landscape that Trump's presidency may intensify, Africa's stance on issues like Israel could have far-reaching consequences.
Accelerating the Decline of U.S. Influence?
While Trump's policies may offer short-term benefits for the U.S., Cilliers argues they could ultimately accelerate America's global decline. Trump's preference for deal-making over principles, Cilliers contends, prioritizes short-term gains at the expense of long-term relationships and stability. In Cilliers' view, this approach risks isolating the U.S. on the world stage and reducing its influence over time.
Cilliers emphasizes that Trump's approach to governance and diplomacy is more suited to his background in business than to the nuances of global leadership. This approach, which favors individual or corporate gains, could erode the U.S.'s role in supporting democratic values, accountability, and good governance around the world.
Africa's Potential Collateral Damage
In conclusion, Cilliers' assessment of Trump's return to power paints a challenging picture for Africa. From trade and climate commitments to political alignments, Trump's policies may disadvantage Africa on multiple fronts. South Africa, as a member of BRICS with close ties to countries like China and Russia, could find itself further marginalized in the global arena. Cilliers warns that Trump's presidency will likely bring turbulence for Africa, making the continent vulnerable to shifts in U.S. policy priorities.
Hogg summarizes the potential impact, noting that while Trump's policies might stimulate the U.S. economy in the short term, the consequences for global growth could be severe. For African economies like South Africa's, this could mean diminished trade opportunities, fewer jobs, and hindered progress on critical issues such as climate action and financial reform.
As Cilliers reflects on the larger picture, he underscores the importance of Africa remaining cautious and adaptive in the face of an uncertain future with the U.S. under Trump. For Africa, the key may be to strengthen ties within the continent and with other global partners to navigate the challenges of a transactional American foreign policy.
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