National Dialogue: SA’s last chance to avoid Armageddon
Following the announcement by President Cyril Ramaphosa that a National Dialogue will be held next year to determine the path the nation will take, BizNews spoke to former Statistician-General Dr. Pali Lehohla. He says: "So the solutions are in leadership. It must be a two-month discussion, ensuring what leadership it is. It must be led by people who are not government. It must be led by people who don't have any interest in political occupancy and all that kind of thing. It must be led by people who are forthright and upright and then they must hold the mirror to South Africa and say, are these ones in power the kind of leaders that deserve the country. If we say yes, then we don't need an election, we continue with them…But if…we don't like them, then the answer is very clear. And then we go for an election." Dr Lehohla warns: "..this is a monumental space that South Africa faces. It is probably the last opportunity to avoid an Armageddon."
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Extended transcript of the interview ___STEADY_PAYWALL___
Chris Steyn
President Cyril Ramaphosa has announced that a National Dialogue will be held next year to determine the path the nation will take. We speak to former Statistician-General Dr. Pali Lehohla. Welcome, Sir.
Chris Steyn
Doctor, what are your views on this National Dialogue?
Pali
Thank you very much for inviting me and thank you listeners for paying attention.
Pali
I think last year in December, just before Christmas, I penned a piece in Daily Maverick and called for a national dialogue before the election. And I did so because there was a national election coming. Such a national election would decide on the path South Africa will have to take in the next five years. And consulting society, given where we are and the imperative for a national dialogue, would have been more appropriate in the period before the election rather than after the election. Because once an election has decided, then that's the voice of the people. It was not constituting a new government from scratch after a constituent assembly or a pre-apartheid or a post-apartheid government that would have to be created. Once the Constitution allows and legitimises a government that has been elected to be in power, the possibility of a genuine dialogue is impossible. And the period before a national election was the best position. But of course, others said, what about the Constitution? One was not calling for an endless consultation because December was five months before an election. So they had time to go through this consultative process, understood and given the parties that are contesting, probably up to August to contest on the basis of what the people are saying.
Now, how are we going to manage this? Retrofit it? It's impossible. Because the incumbents now that have a mandate for the next five years would like to control…
Pali
given that they are now in power. There's very little that society can do to determine what the path should be.
At best, the consultation can easily result to lifting off the pedal from the accelerator in order to deflect the impatience that society is in at the moment. Such a valve, opening the valve of impatience in order to survive one more day as a politician will be an unforgivable, unforgivable sin. Because the wave of impatience that will come later, probably when all these politicians are no longer there and everybody else has died, will come tenfold with more complications.
Now, given that we are here now, what are the guardrails against such an eventuality of incumbents manipulating the process? There is only one issue on the agenda. It can't be a consultative, or rather a national dialogue to come and solve potholes, a national dialogue to decide who gets appointed as a director of National Prosecution Authority or a director general. It can't be a national dialogue about those things because the mechanisms for doing that is already in place. It can't be a national dialogue around how we govern ourselves. No, it can't because the mechanisms we pride ourselves that we have the best constitution, we have the best laws, if we have those, and it is true, we do. If we have those and we can compare those that the legal system and all those things are working, we cannot therefore have a national dialogue on those things that are in law and we have endorsed that they are constitutional and they are right. This is about behavioral problems. Institutions have three characteristics…
Pali
that place them at times, that manifest that dysfunction. First is the behavioral one. The second is a structural one. And the third is an operational one.
The structural and the operational one are legislated, they are there. And you can't, you need not reform them. They are there. It says this person will be appointed in the following way. It is there in the law. It has to be that way. The first includes, the behavioral one includes leadership. And it is the first one where things are broken and it is all about leadership. Now there's only one thing therefore that the national dialogue should actually deal with is what leadership, what kind of leadership, because it's, it's talks to behaviors, what kind of leadership, what kind of are befitting to lead South Africa. That's what the dialogue should be about. That's only one item.
The other two which are structural and operational, they are catered for in the laws that we have provided. Those are tinkering on the margins. It cannot be the main thing. It cannot be about potholes. It cannot be about how we deal with the corrupt person because the laws are there to deal with that. It would be a waste of time to go into those two, the area of structural problems and operational problems in how institutions perform.
Pali
The only one we have to deal with is the conduct of leadership. And that should be defining for ourselves what kind of a leader we have, we should have and deserve. When we have finished that and defined the leader that we should have, then we should put the mirror in front of those that we have and say, is the man in the mirror yourself? If you don't fit that, then you do not deserv to be a leader of the country. Then we should call for an election and then go and choose the leaders that we… That's the only thing that the national dialogue should concern itself with. Not about portholes, not about dysfunctional education, not about corruption. No, it can't be. Those things are legislated. They're there. The only problem is that the leaders don't want to do the right things. And that should be the only thing that the dialogue should concern itself with.
Pali
The second problem of incumbency is that this national dialogue cannot be led by government because they are the number one culprit. They are not dealing with the leadership issue. They are mixing and bringing the operational issues into the leadership and make the operational issues the excuse. The structure issues they excuse when they are in a position of leadership and to make decisions around those things. So it is about them and not about anything else. It is about us as society on how we lead and how we want to be led. That's the only agenda. And that agenda must be called by a neutral set of people who have no political ambition, who will not contest an election, but only have the responsibility to say, we want to put this mirror in front of your people: if you are the people that we say,if you are the people that don't fit the leadership profile, you have no business to lead. And then once that is done, then we say a new election and then facilitate that election and then hold those who lead to account. That's the only thing that this national dialogue should be about. If you are going to talk about hospitals and pothole and corruption, it's waste of time.
You know, when Nelson Mandela decided on the date of the election, when everything was seeming to fail and there was a problem or rather a real specter of a collapsed negotiation when Chris Hani was assassinated, he decided on the date of the election. Mandela said, I'll exercise leadership. I'm not going to exercise law here. I'm not going to exercise this or that, he said. That Chris Hani has been murdered. I'll decide on the date of the election. And that was it. 27th, he literally took over the government. That's leadership.
Pali
That's what this country needs. No discussions around potholes. I mean, that would be a waste of time. So we should meet on the question of behavioral aspects. Central to them is leadership. The structural things such as who heads NPA or who heads the other office or that…
Pali
is not on the agenda, it's not part of the agenda. There are laws that have been written for that and the operations, there are budgets that get allocated to deal with that. We cannot come and waste time with those two things. The key problem that has already been identified…both in 2016 and now when we said the first report in 2018 pointed to the problem of leadership.
Pali
The second one has pointed to even an intensified problem of leadership. So all other aspects of our research in South Africa by everybody points to leadership. And that's the mirror we must hold to ourselves and discuss only that, leadership.
Chris Steyn
Sir, meanwhile with unemployment being the most critical issue, what does that say about Black
Economic Empowerment?
Pali
Well, I mean, the problem of unemployment is number one, but it takes leadership to solve it. It takes leadership to say, I've decided that these are the economic policies that we will focus on. I have future proof of these economic policies. I'm not thumb sucking. I have a process by which I can convince you that these policies will work. And in year one, in year two, in year three, these are the outcomes that will be there. I will now instruct the national treasury not only to provide the expenditure in their red book each time they come to the budget speech, but they will tell us by how many people, how many people will have jobs. They'll tell us how much we'll reduce poverty and by how much we'll reduce inequality. And they'll tell us impact indicators, not this output indicators of GDP. No, we don't want to talk about GDP. It's important, but it cannot be how we measure the quality of life of society. Yes, put GDP in the rate book, put consumer prices in the rate book, put a to GDP ratio in the rate book, but those are output measures. You only have an input measure, which is the budget and output measure.
Governance and government and leadership is about impact and purpose. And purpose is not about those output measures, it's about impact. The purpose is to make sure that unemployment, poverty and inequality are reduced in South Africa by X at such and such a point of time. And we want future proof for that. It doesn't mean full proof, but when you have future proof, you'll have done the homework that brings South Africa together to move in the direction. And first and foremost, we have to answer the question of leadership. And once you have answered that question of leadership, then the agenda to deal with these things is what we hand over to that leadership to execute. Convince that leadership that that leadership has the capacity and has the tools and instruments of power that will deliver on those. Unemployment, yes, it's a problem now, but it's been a problem for so many years.
Pali
It means it is a leadership failure. It is a leadership failure, nothing else.
Chris Steyn
We spoke earlier about Steve Biko, the Black Consciousness leader murdered by the security branch. Would he have supported Black Economic Empowerment?
Pali
I'm sure you would because he talks about Black empowerment, Black self-awareness, Black consciousness. So when he says Black consciousness, it means you have to be conscious about yourself….
A responsible leader pursues peace, creates productivity, builds alliances, guarantees intergenerational value through integrated reporting. Integrated reporting is the means of future proof…I have to be sure that you are consulting stakeholders. I have to be sure that you are increasing productivity. And I have to be sure that you are committing to intergenerational value. ..
The medicine for power is to understand yourself, which is what Biko says in terms of Black Consciousness. Understand yourself, understand the people that you work with, and thirdly, ensure that you love them…
Pali
and in loving them, we presume that you have to love yourself…
In terms of BEE, therefore, it will be anchored on Black Consciousness. It would not be a BEE that has created this inequality amongst Blacks. Blacks before were not as unequal as they are now. The democracy has increased inequality amongst Blacks…exceeding inequality the highest across all population groups. It can be, it wouldn't have been because mantra. Now, when you do these things without future proof, they generate such disjunctures, such things that now we are surprised that how do we deal with poverty? Let's make sure that we go into a national dialogue in order to deal with poverty. No, no, no, this matter is a matter of leadership and nothing else.
Pali
The two things of poverty, these things of misbehaviour, or rather corruption and so on, they fall in the structure and the operation.
Pali
And their success depends on leadership. And Biko will have been a leader that says, consciousness comes first, and that Black Consciousness has these characteristics, and those characteristics have to be complied with in order to be that leader. He wouldn't have created a system that will have generated such inequality amongst Blacks. The Gini coefficient of the Blacks is the highest. And it is because of the way the structure of the BEE was. I mean, I suppose the people that thought about it didn't think that it will deliver this. But when you don't have future proof, it will yield these kinds of things…
Because through integrated reporting, you actually have future proof. Now, having had future proof, you actually organise the new instruments of power to achieve these objectives of pursuit for peace, that there's peace and there's intergenerational value.
To achieve those, you use new instruments of power. And that power is this one that has to be given to a responsible leader…
…And this is what this dialogue should be about. It should be about how do we stop the cannibalism and carnage that is here. It's not about discussing it. It's not about discussing the carnage and the characterisation of it. We can characterise it, but it is about leadership to say, this is where we go. We understand what causes all this. This is what we lead into. And then we'll organise the structures and the operations to ensure that these are linked. If we fail to do that in the 15 years, there is no hope in hell for people to take the position of leadership to deal with this thing.
Chris Steyn
So what could South Africa have looked like now without the policies that have been pursued in recent years?
Pali
It needs a different type of leadership, a different type of perspective, a different type of compassion. A Steve Biko kind of compassion. A Mosheswe kind of compassion. A Mandela kind of compassion…
Pali
So the solutions are in leadership. They are not in structures and operations. And that these discussions should never touch structures and operations. It must be a two month discussion, ensuring what leadership it is. It must be led by people who are not government. It must be led by people who don't have any interest in political occupancy and all that kind of thing. It must be led by people who are forthright and upright and then they must hold the mirror to South Africa and say, are these ones in powe the kind of leaders that deserve the country. If we say yes, then we don't need an election, we continue with them. And then of course we shouldn't worry about the consequences because they are here ahead and they will continue. But if we say the consequences, we don't like them, then the answer is very clear. And then we go for an election.
Chris Steyn
In conclusion, sir, is there anything you would like to say?
Pali
In conclusion, this is a monumental space that South Africa faces. It is probably the last opportunity to avoid an Armaggedon. It is about choosing between dispensation of justice
by judges who are monkeys in their own forest, or a dispensation of justice by the entirety of people who are adjudicators of their future in their own forest.
Pali
This is the choice we have to for future generations to realise intergenerational wealth in this country. Thank you.
Chris Steyn
Thank you. That was the former Statistician-General, Dr. Pali Leholha, speaking to BizNews about the National Dialogue coming up next year. Thank you, sir. And I'm Chris Steyn
Pali
Thank you very much.
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