South African voters disgruntled but support Ramaphosa – IRR survey

LONDON — The Institute of Race Relations has come up with a cheat sheet before the 8 May following a survey done from 12 -26 February on voters’ attitudes towards the various issues that the election is fought on and the overall picture is that voters are generally disenchanted and have little faith in the government or political parties. Here are a few examples: On the ANC government’s performance on economic growth 77.3% said they were very or somewhat dissatisfied, on fighting corruption 71.2% and crime 69.2%. There is one issue of a majority support and that is President Cyril Ramaphosa; 60.1% of voters strongly or somewhat approve of the job he is doing. His organisation however does not enjoy the same support, the poll indicates 54.7% support nationally for the ANC.  There is a same disconnect between the leaders of the other parties. 41.5% of national voters approve of Democratic Alliance leader Mmusi Maimane but only 21.8% indicated overall DA support. 38.4% indicated approval of EFF leader Julius Malema’s compared to 12.2% for his party. The disenchanted voter is a world-wide trend. Many younger voters in the United Kingdom did not bother to vote in the Brexit referendum, yet they are the loudest to complain about the impact of it and can be seen in marches on a second referendum. It will be interesting to see whether the 20.7% of voters who are between the ages of 19 and 29 in South Africa have the same attitude and whether they could learn from the UK experience that you need to vote to make a difference. – Linda van  Tilburg

The IRR voter cheat-sheet

The numbers: 1-100 voter positions and characteristics

What follows is a summary table of South African voter positions and preferences on key issues, as well as the demographic characteristics of the voting population, drawn from the South African Institute of Race Relations (IRR) survey of February 2019. See below the table for a description of the survey methodology.*

93.0% National voters with a Grade 12 (matric) certificate or less
77.3% National voters who are black
77.3% National voters who are very or somewhat dissatisfied with the national ANC government’s performance on Economic Growth
73.2% National voters with an average monthly household income of R8,000 or less
71.2% National voters who are very or somewhat dissatisfied with the national ANC government’s performance on Fighting Corruption
69.2% National voters who are very or somewhat dissatisfied with the national ANC government’s performance on Fighting Crime
67.8% Western Cape voters who feel very or somewhat unfavourable towards Julius Malema
65.8% National voters who believe strongly or somewhat strongly that the country is moving in the wrong direction
65.6% Western Cape voters who feel very or somewhat unfavourable towards the EFF
65.4% National voters who believe the phrase “Is corrupt” best describes the ANC
64.6% National voters who are not employed, either not working or retired
64.5% National voters who reside in urban areas
61.0% National voters who believe coalition governments are quite or a very good idea in general
60.9% National voters who believe the ANC will win the 2019 elections comfortably or with just over 50% of the vote
60.6% Gauteng voters who feel very or somewhat favourable towards Cyril Ramaphosa
60.4% National voters who feel very or somewhat favourable towards Cyril Ramaphosa
60.1% National voters who strongly or somewhat approve of the job Cyril Ramaphosa is doing as President of South Africa
58.3% National voters who are very or somewhat dissatisfied with the national ANC government’s performance on Land Reform
56.8% National voters who believe unemployment is the biggest priority economic issue facing the national government
56.0% National voters who are very or somewhat dissatisfied with the national ANC government’s performance on Delivering Healthcare
55.8% National voters who feel very or somewhat favourable towards the ANC
54.8% National voters who are women
54.7% ANC support among all national voters on the national ballot
53.8% National voters who are very or somewhat dissatisfied with the national ANC government’s performance on Delivering Education
50.3% Western Cape voters who feel very or somewhat unfavourable towards the ANC
50.1% Western Cape voters who feel very or somewhat favourable towards Cyril Ramaphosa
50.1% DA support among all Western Cape voters on the provincial ballot
49.6% National voters who strongly or somewhat disapprove of the job Julius Malema is doing as leader of the EFF
48.9% National voters who strongly or somewhat support the idea of a tax revolt
48.3% Gauteng voters who feel very or somewhat unfavourable towards Julius Malema
47.9% National voters who are unemployed
47.8% Gauteng voters who feel very or somewhat unfavourable towards the EFF
47.8% National voters who believe the phrase “Has strong leadership” best describes the ANC
47.7% National voters who strongly or somewhat oppose the idea of a tax revolt
47.4% Gauteng voters who feel very or somewhat favourable towards the ANC
46.5% Western Cape voters who feel very or somewhat favourable towards the DA
46.4% National voters who feel very or somewhat unfavourable towards the EFF
45.5% National voters who believe the phrase “Is good at governing” best describes the ANC
45.2% National voters who are men
44.9% National voters who feel very or somewhat unfavourable towards Julius Malema
44.6% National voters who believe the phrase “Care about people of my race” best describes the ANC
44.3% Gauteng voters who feel very or somewhat unfavourable towards the DA
43.7% National voters who believe the ANC will do the best job at Providing Healthcare
43.2% National voters who are very or somewhat satisfied with the national ANC government’s performance on Delivering Education
43.1% National voters who believe the phrase “Care about people like me” best describes the ANC
42.8% Western Cape voters who feel very or somewhat favourable towards Mmusi Maimane
42.7% National voters who are very or somewhat satisfied with the national ANC government’s performance on Delivering Healthcare
42.6% National voters who feel very or somewhat unfavourable towards the DA
42.1% National voters who believe the ANC will do the best job at Providing Education
41.5% National voters who strongly or somewhat approve of the job Mmusi Maimane is doing as Leader of the Opposition
41.6% ANC support among all Gauteng voters on the provincial ballot
40.7% National voters who believe the phrase “Is growing” best describes the EFF
39.9% Gauteng voters who feel very or somewhat unfavourable towards Mmusi Maimane
39.5% National voters who believe the ANC will do the best job at Delivering Basic Services
39.3% National voters who believe the phrase “Has good policies” best describes the ANC
39.0% National voters who believe jobs and unemployment is the biggest priority issue facing the national government
39.0% National voters who strongly or somewhat disapprove of the job Mmusi Maimane is doing as Leader of the Opposition
38.4% National voters who strongly or somewhat approve of the job Julius Malema is doing as leader of the EFF
37.9% National voters who are not working and are looking for work
37.7% National voters who would prefer an ANC/EFF coalition government at a national level
36.8% Gauteng Voters who would prefer an ANC/EFF coalition government in that province
36.3% National voters who believe the ANC will do the best job at delivering Economic Growth and Job Creation
36.1% National voters who are very or somewhat satisfied with the national ANC government’s performance on Land Reform
35.7% Gauteng voters who feel very or somewhat favourable towards Mmusi Maimane
35.5% National voters who reside in rural areas
35.3% National voters with a Grade 12 (matric) certificate
35.2% National voters who are employed
35.1% National voters who are or between the ages of 30 and 44
34.5% National voters who reside in an urban township
34.1% Gauteng voters who feel very or somewhat unfavourable towards the ANC
34.0% Gauteng voters who feel very or somewhat favourable towards Julius Malema
33.9% National voters with a Grade 8 to Grade 11 education level
33.9% National voters who believe the phrase “Keeps its promises” best describes the ANC
33.9% ANC support among all Western Cape voters on the provincial ballot
33.6% Gauteng voters who feel very or somewhat favourable towards the DA
33.6% National voters who believe the ANC will lose the 2019 elections and will either form or lose out to an opposition coalition
33.6% National voters who feel very or somewhat unfavourable towards Mmusi Maimane
32.6% National voters who would prefer an ANC/DA coalition government at a national level
32.6% National voters who feel very or somewhat favourable towards Julius Malema
32.5% National voters who feel very or somewhat favourable towards the DA
32.4% Western Cape voters who feel very or somewhat unfavourable towards the DA
32.4% DA support among all Gauteng voters on the provincial ballot
32.1% Gauteng voters who feel very or somewhat favourable towards the EFF
31.5% National voters who feel very or somewhat favourable towards Mmusi Maimane
31.3% National voters who are or between the ages of 45 and 64
31.2% National voters with an average monthly household income of R1,999 or less
31.0% National voters who feel very or somewhat favourable towards the EFF
30.9% Western Cape voters who feel very or somewhat favourable towards the ANC
30.9% Gauteng Voters who would prefer an ANC/DA coalition government in that province
30.9% National voters who believe the ANC will do the best job at Fighting Crime
30.2% National voters who believe the DA will do the best job at Delivering Basic Services
30.2% National voters who reside in a rural village or in a rural area
30.1% National voters who believe the EFF will do the best job at Fighting Corruption
29.2% National voters who believe the DA will do the best job at delivering Economic Growth and Job Creation
29.1% National voters who believe the DA will do the best job at Fighting Corruption
28.9% National voters who believe the phrase “Is growing” best describes the ANC
28.5% National voters who believe the DA will do the best job at Fighting Crime
28.4% National voters who feel very or somewhat unfavourable towards the ANC
27.9% Western Cape voters who feel very or somewhat unfavourable towards Mmusi Maimane
27.8% National voters who are very or somewhat satisfied with the national ANC government’s performance on Fighting Crime
27.8% National voters who believe the ANC will do the best job at Fighting Corruption
27.2% National voters who believe coalition governments are quite or a very bad idea in general
27.1% National voters who believe the EFF will do the best job at Fighting Crime
27.1% National voters who believe the DA will do the best job at Providing Healthcare
26.8% National voters who believe strongly or somewhat strongly that the country is moving in the right direction
26.7% National voters who strongly or somewhat disapprove of the job Cyril Ramaphosa is doing as President of South Africa
26.4% National voters who are very or somewhat satisfied with the national ANC government’s performance on Fighting Corruption
25.9% National voters who believe the DA will do the best job at Providing Education
24.6% National voters who believe the phrase “Has good policies” best describes the DA
23.8% National voters who believe the phrase “Is good at governing” best describes the DA
23.8% National voters who reside in Gauteng
22.7% Western Cape voters who feel very or somewhat unfavourable towards Cyril Ramaphosa
22.6% National voters who believe the ANC will do the best job at Providing Education
22.5% National voters who believe the EFF will do the best job at delivering Economic Growth and Job Creation
22.4% Gauteng Voters who would prefer an DA/EFF coalition government in that province
22.1% National voters who believe the phrase “Keeps its promises” best describes the DA
21.8% DA support among all national voters on the national ballot
21.1% National voters who believe the phrase “Is growing” best describes the DA
21.0% National voters who are very or somewhat satisfied with the national ANC government’s performance on Economic Growth
20.7% National voters who are or between the ages of 19 and 29
20.6% National voters who believe the phrase “Care about people like me” best describes the EFF
20.5% National voters who believe the phrase “Care about people of my race” best describes the DA
20.0% National voters who believe the phrase “Has strong leadership” best describes the DA
19.9% National voters who believe the phrase “Has good policies” best describes the EFF
19.9% Western Cape voters who feel very or somewhat favourable towards Julius Malema
19.9% National voters who reside in KwaZulu-Natal
19.7% National voters with an average monthly household income of between R3,000 and R4,999
19.5% National voters who believe the phrase “Care about people like me” best describes the DA
19.4% National voters who are working in a formal business
19.3% National voters who believe the phrase “Care about people of my race” best describes the EFF
19.2% National voters who believe the phrase “Has strong leadership” best describes the ANC
19.1% National voters who believe the EFF will do the best job at Delivering Basic Services
18.2% EFF support among all Gauteng voters on the provincial ballot
18.2% National voters with a Grade R to Grade 7 education level
18.0% Gauteng voters who feel very or somewhat unfavourable towards Cyril Ramaphosa
17.9% National voters who feel very or somewhat unfavourable towards Cyril Ramaphosa
17.6% National voters who believe the phrase “Keeps its promises” best describes the EFF
17.4% National voters who reside in an urban suburb
16.8% National voters who would prefer an DA/EFF coalition government at a national level
16.7% National voters who are retired
15.6% National voters who reside in the Eastern Cape
14.6% National voters with an average monthly household income of between R2,000 and R2,999
14.4% National voters who believe corruption is the biggest priority issue facing the national government
12.9% National voters who are older than 64
12.6% National voters who believe the phrase “Is good at governing” best describes the EFF
12.2% EFF support among all national voters on the national ballot
11.6% Western Cape voters who feel very or somewhat favourable towards the EFF
11.0% National voters who are white
10.6% National voters who are working in an informal business
10.0% National voters who are not working and not looking for work
9.4% National voters who believe the EFF will do the best job at Providing Healthcare
9.3% National voters who reside in the Western Cape
9.3% National voters who reside in Limpopo
9.1% National voters who are Coloured
8.5% National voters with an average monthly household income of R20,000 or more
7.7% National voters who reside in the North West
7.7% National voters with an average monthly household income of between R5,000 and R7,999
7.1% National voters who reside in Mpumalanga
7.0% National voters who reside in an urban informal settlement
6.6% National voters who believe the phrase “Is corrupt” best describes the EFF
6.2% National voters who have graduated from university or hold a post-graduate qualification
5.6% National voters with no formal schooling
5.6% National voters who reside in a city centre or central business district
5.5% National voters who believe the phrase “Is corrupt” best describes the DA
5.4% National voters who reside in the Free State
4.8% National voters with an average monthly household income of between R2,000 and R2,999
3.7% National voters with an average monthly household income of between R12,000 and R19,999
3.4% National voters who reside on a rural smallholding
2.9% National voters working in their own formal business
2.6% National voters who are Indian
2.3% National voters working in their own informal business
2.1% National voters who reside in the Northern Cape
1.9% National voters who reside on a rural commercial farm
0.9% National voters who believe land reform is the biggest priority issue facing the national government
  • All numbers are all drawn from a South African Institute of Race Relations survey, conducted by Victory Research. The survey was conducted between 12 and 26 February 2019. The sample was fully demographically representative and comprised only registered voters. A total of 1,611 respondents were questioned. The national margin of error was 3.3%. Supplementing this were two fully demographically representative sub-samples for Gauteng (sample size: 502 registered voters) and the Western Cape (sample size: 405 registered voters). The margin of error for the Gauteng sub-sample was 3.8%, and for the Western Cape sub-sample, 5.9%. The confidence level is 95%. The poll was conducted telephonically, using a single frame, random digit-dialling sampling design.