Directly electing SA’s president – a good idea until you unpack it

State Capture Inquiry Chairperson Raymond Zondo set tongues wagging when he suggested in his final report that “consideration be given to making the necessary constitutional amendments to ensure that the president of the country is elected directly by the people”. University of Cape Town Political Studies Professor Anthony Butler explains to BizNews that while it may seem like a good idea in theory, in reality it is incredibly complex and has significant pitfalls. Butler goes on to give a masterclass in electoral systems, providing some snippets of what 2024 may bring from a coalition perspective. As the author of biography, Cyril Ramaphosa: The Road to Presidential Power, Butler also has some parting words on his impressions of Ramaphosa’s presidency to date and whether his “reform agenda” will be implemented should he win a second term. – Michael Appel

Prof Anthony Butler on his recent column on Chief Justice Raymond Zondo’s final report 

You have to understand that changing the system by which you elect a president is making a fundamental change to the system of government as a whole. So in a presidential system, once you’ve elected the president, you’re stuck with them, except in very exceptional circumstances where you might have an impeachment process. Now. Do we want to make changes of that significance at all? And here I make a general point that is relevant to a whole range of. amendments being proposed to our political system. We have people talking about the constituency basis of elections, people talking about this process, in fact, of introducing the opportunity for so-called independent candidates to run for national and provincial office. All of these proposed changes, I think, are in themselves, dangerous. They’re dangerous because as we’ve seen in many countries around the world, including long established democracies, the legitimacy of an electoral system is in part based on repetition and habit. 

On the Van Zyl Slabbert electoral task team report from nearly 20 years ago and what the report recommends 

The task team 20 years ago, chaired by Frederick Van Zyl Slabbert, was tasked with reporting on the electoral system, which was viewed as provisional. At the time the Constitution was finalised and the task team was divided. The majority report, which was supported by Slabbert, argued for a mixed system. Now, the government rejected this and it decided to remain with our current closed list, a proportional system without constituencies. But I think the argument is a balanced one. And I don’t think that the majority report should be dismissed out of hand at all. My initial concern is about whether now is a good time to change an electoral system. In the electoral system, the electoral commission is likely to be stress tested by a period of transition between majority government and coalition government. 

Now my view is that we already have quite a complex electoral system and local issues are addressed in local elections. And provincial issues are addressed to some degree in provincial elections. So national elections allow citizens to focus on clearly stated manifesto commitments of coherent political parties. And I think that’s the strength of our system. I think that when you look at countries that don’t have strong party systems, for example, in Latin America, you have a huge problem with making meaningful electoral choices or having personal contestation at different levels of government. 

On whether he sees the rise of coalition governments on a national scale in 2024 and how much maturity that will require

We already have a fair number of coalition governments. And so far they’ve been managed reasonably well. I think there are perhaps different ways in which a coalition government might work out. And I think we’ve already seen that the ANC is weak in most of the more urban provinces, which are also the centres of economic activity. And this is a concern for the ANC, but also for the political system as a whole. If the ANC becomes increasingly centred around the politics of poorer provinces and loses power at the centre of the economy and the urban centres of the country, there’s going to be a growing tension, a tension that’s already in place. The growing tension between the largest political party, which the ANC is likely to remain for some time, and the system of government. 

Coalitions are also problematic or complex, at least because of the nature of our party system. I think sometimes we imagine that our political parties are a little bit like political parties in the United Kingdom or established Western democracies. Coalitions may not quickly lead us to a radical change in our political system.  

On whether he’s surprised by how President Ramaphosa’s tenure is going

I think that there is a lot of disappointment with Ramaphosa’s first term. There was some attempt to manage expectations and to suggest room for manoeuvre for the new president would be constrained by internal ANC politics. And I do think that there is truth to that claim. I suppose  we will have to look out for what happens after the December conference. So although I can see some scenarios under which Ramaphosa might not be re-elected as ANC president, certainly the overwhelming likelihood is that he will be, and then he’ll be in a particularly unconstrained position.  

If Ramaphosa comes back from the December conference, and arrives in January with a plan and a set of fresh Cabinet appointments, with a series of priorities for reform that he then advances rapidly in our system of government, there’s very little the ANC can do to stop him. I have doubts that he has such a plan that is acceptable to him and to people around him. But I’m an optimist about this issue. And I think despite Ramaphosa’s fairly long period in office, it has been a difficult time for other reasons, including the constraints imposed by the COVID pandemic and the economic fallout from that. So I’m waiting to see what comes after December. 

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