Chuck Stephens: Is democracy breaking out in the Middle East?

Israel's actions against Hezbollah have shifted the Middle East landscape, leading to the fall of Syria's Assad regime. With Syria's rebels seizing opportunity, questions emerge: will democracy prevail, or will regional tensions—including Kurdish self-determination—reshape Syria's future?.Sign up for your early morning brew of the BizNews Insider to keep you up to speed with the content that matters. The newsletter will land in your inbox at 5:30am weekdays. Register here..The seventh BizNews Conference, BNC#7, is to be held in Hermanus from March 11 to 13, 2025. The 2025 BizNews Conference is designed to provide an excellent opportunity for members of the BizNews community to interact directly with the keynote speakers, old (and new) friends from previous BNC events – and to interact with members of the BizNews team. Register for BNC#7 here..By Chuck Stephens*.Quo Vadis Syria?.What has brought about the end of the Assad era?.Rebellion, yes, of course. But after a decade or more of stalemate in Syria's civil war, why now?.It's because Israel create the conditions for this turn-over. The IDF severely weakened Hezbollah. First it used targeted bombs to take out Hezbollah leaders and then it entered Lebanon and enforced the UN Resolution that says Hezbollah must stay north of the Litani River. Hezbollah had violated this UN resolution. After its long and difficult campaign to take out all Hamas battalions in Gaza, Israel turned its attention to Hezbollah..In principle, Lebanon is a democratic country. It holds elections. However, for a decade or more Hezbollah's military presence in Lebanon has been larger and stronger that Lebanon's own military. So it ruled the roost and Israel has talked of "liberating" Lebanon with its intervention..The truth is that when Hezbollah was strong and threatening Israel's northern frontier, it was also Assad's protector. It deployed forces in Syria as well as Lebanon. Syria was key to the delivery of fighter and munitions to Lebanon..Ironically, in the aftermath of its severe weakening in Lebanon, Hezbollah did not come to Assad's defense. It withdrew into Lebanon, leaving Assad to run away. The rebels, backed by Turkey, saw the opportunity and seized it..The question now is whether Syria has just traded one dictator for another? Or will genuine elections now be possible, allowing this multiracial state its right to self-determination?.The multi-racial mix includes Turks, Arabs and Kurds. Syria is divided by the Euphrates River, flowing down from the mountains in Turkey. It flows on into Iraq and thence to the Arabian Gulf. Like Israel, Syria has been ruled by many empires over the centuries. The Persians ruled it (Iran) before the Greeks (Alexander the Great conquered it). Then the Romans conquered it and it became a Byzantine province. After the rise of Islam, it was ruled by various Muslim empires..Perhaps the most famous of them all was Saladin? He who fought Richard the Lionheart in the Third Crusade. It should be noted here that Saladin was a Kurd, born in Tikrit. That is now in the north of Iraq. Suddam Hussein was also born there. He who wreaked havoc among the Kurds. But I digress. Saladin ruled from Damascus. By the time King Richard I arrived, Saladin had taken back the Crusader enclaves of Acre and Jaffa. Relentless Richard re-conquered these two cities, but failed to win Jerusalem. So there were peace talks..Saladin held on to Jerusalem but he did allow unarmed Christian pilgrims to worship in Jerusalem..I have a hunch that with the ascendancy of Donald Trump, Turkey will advise the rebels to be magnanimous. Turkey is a secular state, in principle. That may be the model for Syria? The Ottoman Turks were the last empire to rule Syria..However, the prospect of an autonomous Kurdestan is also rising. Both George Bush I and his son George W Bush failed to secure for the Kurds a sustainable space for their security. The rub is that there are many Kurds in south-east Turkey as well. Turkey regards this as a threat and has therefore occupied a buffer zone along its border with Syria..However, Syria east of the Euphrates will incline towards Kurdish self-determination. Could this lead to a split? Those who promote a two-state solution for Israel will ironically oppose this same solution for Syria. But the Kurds are already ruling much of east Syria. Even on the west bank of the Euphrates. Expect them to pull back a bit, hunker down, and adopt hit-and-run tactics against the Turkish occupation..These two noble goals will clash. Democratization and a space for Kurdish self-rule..Kurdestan not only takes in eastern Syria and some of south-eastern Turkey, but northern Iraq and a province in the north or Iran too. It will be tricky to consolidate, but Iran may have to trade off some space for the Kurds, in order to survive the severe downturn in its fortunes. Hamas is down for the count. Hezbollah is destabilized and shrinking. Assad has fled. The Houthis are a pariah among the nations..Moderate Muslims will rise up, sensing the weakening of radical Islam. Donald Trump will bring back the Abraham Accords. He who favoured moving the US embassy to Jerusalem. He who recognized the Golan Heights as part of Israel. He who favours the annexation of Judea and Samaria (known in UN parlance as the "West Bank"). He will be hard on Hamas if they don't give up their American hostages before 20 January 2025..All in all, the State of Israel project has long been regarded as a beach head for Democracy in the Middle East. A region of autocracies. The trending seems to be heading that way. Sudden changes in Syria could be a harbinger of change. The region deserves an end to perpetual war and the return of peace and prosperity as it enjoyed in centuries past. To get this benefit, it may have to give up its cherished penchant for autocracy..Read also:.Hydrogen power takes off in SA: A game-changer for clean energy and jobs – Chuck StephensChuck Stephens: California has lost its way – what that means for the USAChuck Stephens on Walz-Vance debate: Hillbilly in pinstripes versus establishment wannabe.*Chuck Stephens: Desmond Tutu Centre for Leadership

Chuck Stephens: Is democracy breaking out in the Middle East?

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