If the PIC ever got to a point where it couldn't make sufficient returns to cover payments, the government would be on the hook for the pensions of civil servants, which are guaranteed by the state. Ramaphosa already is under pressure to bail out or assume the debt of Eskom, while other state enterprises are suffering from a chronic lack of funding.
The president is also striving to narrow a budget deficit of about 4% of gross domestic product. South Africa's economy hasn't grown by more than 2% since 2013, while unemployment of 27% remains near a 15-year high.
"There is a pipeline of problems for Mr. Ramaphosa and I think he is probably in the most difficult position any South African president has been in since at least 1994," said Andre Duvenhage, a political science professor at North-West University in Potchefstroom, west of Johannesburg. "What will be interesting is to see how all these factors play into the election."
The fallout from the scandal has been dramatic: Nine PIC directors, including the chairman – who is also the deputy finance minister – resigned en masse earlier this month. Allegations against some of them "have been unbearable to us as individuals and have undoubtedly had a negative impact on our professional integrity," they said in a letter to Finance Minister Tito Mboweni. They offered to stay on until a new board is found.
The move leaves an oversight vacuum at the state-owned company just as its reputation is at its lowest. Over the past year, half of the PIC's executive committee have been suspended or resigned, including Matjila, who is still due to testify to the commission.
Ramaphosa set up the commission in October after an anonymous whistle-blower made allegations about PIC financial wrongdoing. Chaired by former Supreme Court of Appeal President Judge Lex Mpati, its job is to investigate and make recommendations on the validity of the accusations. It will also rule on whether any legislation, PIC policy or contractual obligations have been broken and resulted in undue benefit for any director, employee or their family members.
Ways to strengthen PIC governance suggested at the inquiry include an end to the post of PIC chairman being held by South Africa's deputy finance minister. The pension fund isn't obligated to hold its R1.8trn of assets with the PIC, and the Federation of Unions of South Africa, the country's second-largest labor union grouping, said in September 2017 it would agitate for the PIC to be replaced if it was forced to help bail out state funds.