The letter to The Editor below, on the subject of Western Cape independence rather than devolution, is a fascinating one. The writer, Dick Boothroyd, notes that the DA insists – and says Helen Zille repeated the belief as if it is a cast iron certainty – that a coalition will replace the ANC in 2024. Boothroyd argues, however, the ANC/EFF axis presently holds 274 seats, only five less than the ANC held in 2004. Voters are therefore deserting the ANC for the EFF, not for the DA. He foresees the EFF as kingmaker in the next election, complete with vice-president Malema and further policies similar to EWC. “My reading of matters is that the WC will increasingly have to do its own thing, which will ultimately amount to de facto independence,” Boothroyd concludes. Read more below for an interesting take on current political developments. – Sandra Laurence
By Dick Boothroyd
I always liked Helen Zille and thought her the best leader the DA ever had, but I was sadly disappointed at her rubbishing the Cape independence initiative in your recent interview with her. She didn’t exactly call us loonies, but that was the undertone, as though we have no legitimacy or reason for our attitude. But it wasn’t only her rejection of independence, it was her untruth by omission, but I’ll get to that later.
I was an enthusiastic DA supporter for decades for all the obvious reasons, but deserted it for the first time in the recent local elections precisely because of its refusal to contemplate secession. No matter how well the DA has governed, I don’t believe that devolution and coalition government are acceptable substitutes for independence and decided to put my money where my mouth is.
I didn’t come to independence lightly – I did so only after long and careful examination forced me to the conclusion that (1) there is no hope of arresting the decline under the ANC and (2) there is no hope of ejecting it at the polls.
To expect improvement after thirty years of decline is the classic definition of insanity. But aside from that, it is surely obvious that (1) the ANC will continue to put ideology before competence and (2) it will never abandon the cadre deployment that is causing such disaster, of which Eskom is but one example.
The DA insists, and Helen Zille repeated the belief as if it is a cast iron certainty, that a coalition will replace the ANC in 2024. At the ANC’s peak popularity in 2004 it held 279 parliamentary seats. It has declined at every general election since, but slowly. The graph shows a straight line decline with a very slight acceleration from 2014 to 2019, and unless the decline accelerates significantly it is by no means certain that it will fall below 50%. I don’t say that it’s impossible, or even unlikely, just that it looks less certain to me than to Helen Zille. But what about the EFF? It won 25 seats at its first attempt in 2014 and nearly doubled that in 2019. That tells me that whatever is losing the ANC support, it’s not its leftist policies. Indeed, the ANC/EFF axis presently holds 274 seats, only five less than the ANC held in 2004. Voters are therefore deserting the ANC for the EFF, not for the DA. Together, the ANC and EFF presently hold 68.5%, so to fall below 50%, they will have to lose a whopping 30% of their 2019 support. I don’t believe that will happen – indeed, I suspect that we will see the EFF as kingmaker complete with vice-president Malema and further policies similar to EWC.
But even if we get a coalition, it won’t be much more than 50%, which means that it will have to include all the other parties which are not all comfortable bedfellows, precisely the Nelson Mandela Bay scenario about which Helen Zille laments so much. Meanwhile, the DA’s support reduced slightly from 2014 to 2019 and is presently 20.40% nationally, and if the Western Cape is taken out, it is something like 16% in the other eight provinces. Helen Zille can crow as much as she likes about DA mayors in five metropoles, but 16% speaks for itself, and it is surely obvious that the voters of eight provinces, mostly black – let’s not dodge around that – have chosen the leftist path. As the CIAG’s Neil Kish put it, they have chosen a South African Cuba while we in the Western Cape want a South African Singapore.
Devolution? I won’t call it impossible but the ANC is an ideologically centrist party, and when Alan Winde recently pleaded for control of the SAPS in the Western Cape, mad hatter Cele told him “when hell freezes over.” I recognise that something may happen about the railways but it hasn’t yet, has it? I applaud the DA’s electricity initiative but let’s not forget that it had to go to court to establish the right to IPP, and that right now the WC is having to go its own way with electricity. The same can be said about the Metro police. My reading of matters is that the WC will increasingly have to do its own thing, which will ultimately amount to de facto independence. So why pursue second best, as Helen Zille wants to do, when we can have first prize and put this disastrous government behind us.
Earlier I mentioned Zille’s untruth by omission. She told you about CIAG, FF+ and Ian Cameron’s participation in a devolution discussion group in a way that implied their approval for devolution without mentioning that they all support independence and see devolution as just a step in that direction. In fact, I can tell you that that is exactly CIAG’s reason for participation, certainly not as a substitute for independence. The FF+ is participating for the same reason, and Corne Mulder has said that the DA will need coalition partners in the WC after the 2026 local elections, but that the FF+ won’t participate in a coalition with the DA unless the DA abandons its opposition to independence. Zille also didn’t mention that CapeXit declined to participate because it won’t focus on anything less than independence.
Whilst independence supporting parties didn’t do as well as I hoped in the recent elections, their vote increased from 0.10% to 5.40% and the FF+ did quite well at the expense of the DA. It is of course impossible to know whether that shift was because of the independence issue, but what else would account for the DA losses? I believe that DA loss was not greater only because many DA voters couldn’t bring themselves to abandon longstanding loyalties. But I have no doubt that it won’t govern the WC without a coalition after 2026. The DA is shooting itself in the foot by sacrificing its WC constituency in pursuit of a national ambition it will never accomplish.
Read also:
- Small can be better, but secession is no easy task
- Why independence for the Western Cape makes sense
- Meet the real Helen Zille Part Two – Singapore, Gordhan, Baleka’s enrichment and more
